Total Factor Productivity And Across The Middle Income Trap In China

With the advent of China's “new normal economy”,a series of economic and social development issues such as slower economic growth,excess production capacity,distorted industrial structure,and widened income gap have become increasingly prominent.At the same time,China has also been released into a danger signal which is called “middle income trap”.Combining the current situation of China's economic development and the experience of developed countries,we can see that raising total factor productivity is not only an inevitable requirement of China's economic development at this stage,but also an inevitable choice for China to leapfrog “middle income trap”.How to improve China's current total factor productivity level and then leapfrog the “middle income trap” and eventually achieve a comprehensive economic development has caused widespread discussion and close attention in the academic community.It is also a major issue that needs to be resolved by all sectors of society.This article first summarizes the relevant literature and research,on the basis of a comprehensive consideration for the status quo of China's economic development,it clarifies the logical relationship between total factor productivity and middle income trap;Second,it compares the per capita GDP and its growth rate between China and other countries.The trend of change proves that China is about to fall into the "middle income trap" reality;then,from a theoretical perspective,it analyzes the impact of technological efficiency and technological progress on the middle-income trap;then,it measures using the DEA-Malmquist index method.It has decomposed China's total factor productivity from 1996 to 2015,analyzed the level of total factor productivity and its changing trends from the national and regional levels;then,using the dynamic panel GMM model,it analyzed the factors affecting total factor productivity under different income scenarios;From the perspective of technological advancement,we have made policy recommendations that leapfrog the “middle income trap”.The calculation results show that total factor productivity in the country and regions has been on an overall upward trend during the period,and technological advancement has driven the total factor productivity more than technical efficiency;in the middle-high income stage,the level of technological innovation has become the main factor affecting the improvement of total factor productivity.From a regional point of view,the main factor influencing the improvement of total factor productivity in all regions during the middle-and high-income period is the level of technological innovation,and FDI has heterogeneity in the improvement of total factor productivity in all regions.Therefore,it is an effective way for China to leapfrog the “middle income trap” by promoting technological progress,and then raising the level of total factor productivity.