| China's economy has changed from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage.As the basis of the national economy,agriculture carries the employment and development of hundreds of millions of farmers in China.The county economy,with agriculture and rural economy as the main body,is the best entry point to study the "Three Rural" issues.The high-quality development of agriculture can ensure China's food security,reduce the incidence of poverty,and narrow the urban and rural areas The gap and the realization of Rural Revitalization Strategy have important practical significance.However,for a long time,China's agricultural production still relies on the input of capital,labor and resources.Through the expansion of the input scale to achieve the increase of agricultural output,this kind of extensive growth mode will eventually be insufficient and unsustainable.Therefore,in the context of the new normal of economy and the high-quality development of agriculture,it is urgent to find a new driving force to realize the transformation and upgrading of agricultural structure and sustainable development.The improvement of total factor productivity(hereinafter referred to as TFP)can optimize the allocation of factors and improve the efficiency of factor production,which is the inevitable choice for the development of high quality agriculture.New structural economics holds that factor endowment is the logical starting point of analyzing industrial structure,and also the basic factor of determining the sustainable growth of agricultural economy."More people and less land" is the basic situation of China's agricultural factor endowment,but with the emergence of Lewis turning point and the gradual disappearance of population dividend,the structure of agricultural factor endowment is undergoing fundamental changes.At the same time,under the constraints of the reduction of cultivated land area,the tightening of constraints on agricultural resources and environment,and the continuous loss of rural young and middle-aged labor force how to break through all kinds of bottlenecks restricting the development of modern agriculture and solve the prominent problems such as "who will plant the land" and "how to plant the land" ? The optimization and upgrading of agricultural structure may be an effective way to solve the above problems.As one of the important driving factors for the growth of TFP,the upgrading of agricultural structure can improve the factor structure by optimizing the allocation of agricultural resources,so as to improve agriculture TFP,promotes the high-quality development of agriculture.Based on the above analysis,the scientific problems of this paper are put forward: under the trend of continuous transfer of agricultural labor factors,rapid replacement of capital factors and increasing scarcity of land factors,will the continuous flow of agricultural production factors promote the optimization and upgrading of agricultural structure? But does the upgrading of agricultural structure promote or restrain the increase of agricultural TFP?What is the effect of agricultural TFP? All these problems need to be studied and solved.Based on the agricultural panel data of 1743 counties in China from 2003 to 2017,thispaper first uses the factor endowment theory to measure the factor endowment coefficient of land,capital and labor force,and then uses the spatial SARAR model to empirically analyze the impact of factor endowment on agricultural structure;secondly,uses the DEA Malmquist index method to measure the total factor productivity of agriculture in counties,and uses the spatial measurement model and threshold regression The model reveals the non-linear influence and action path of agricultural structure on agricultural TFP,and finally analyzes the effect of agricultural TFP.This study is divided into nine chapters.The main contents are summarized as follows:First,the theoretical analysis framework of factor endowment,agricultural structure upgrading and TFP.First of all,using Lin Yifu's new structural economics to build a theoretical analysis framework,this paper theoretically analyzes the causes of the structural change of agricultural factor endowment,the impact of the change of factor endowment on the upgrading of agricultural structure and the impact of the upgrading of agricultural structure on agricultural TFP.Secondly,using mathematical model deduction,this paper theoretically explores the impact of factor endowment on the upgrading of agricultural structure and agricultural structure upgrading on agricultural TFP.Second,the analysis of the influence of factor endowment change on the upgrading of agricultural structure.Firstly,this paper uses factor endowment theory to measure the factor endowment coefficient of land,capital and labor force and uses the quantitative method of industrial structure to measure the rationalization,advancement and service index of China's county agricultural structure;analyzes its dynamic changes.Secondly,it uses spatial SARAR and SEM models to analyze the factors.Finally,based on the technology progress bias,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of factor endowment on the upgrading of agricultural structure.Third,the impact of agricultural structure upgrading on TFP.Firstly,DEA Malmquist index method is used to measure the TFP and decomposition index of China's county agriculture,and its spatiotemporal change trend is analyzed.Secondly,Moran's I is used to test the spatial spillover effect of agricultural TFP and decomposition index,and uses spatial SARAR and SDM model to explore the impact and action path of each index of agricultural structure upgrading on TFP,technical efficiency and technological progress respectively.Finally,the threshold regression model is used to test the impact of agricultural structure upgrading,rationalization and service index on TFP and the nonlinear influence and action path of decomposition index.Fourth,the utility analysis of agricultural TFP.From the contribution rate of agricultural economic growth and the reduction of income gap between urban and rural areas,this paper analyzes whether the improvement of agricultural TFP has brought positive effect.Firstly,it uses the growth rate model to measure the contribution rate of agricultural TFP to agricultural economic growth,and then reveal its influencing factors.Secondly,it empirically verifies the effect of agricultural TFP on the income gap between urban and rural areas.The main findings of this paper are as follows:First,the share of capital in the factor endowment structure increased rapidly year by year,while the share of labor force in the factor endowment structure decreased year by year in 2003-2017 and the factor endowment structure of China's counties showed signs of solidification in 2003-2009.The county agricultural structure tends to be rationalized gradually and the upgrading of agricultural structure has been alleviated after the deterioration in 2008-2015.The improvement of the endowment coefficient of capital elements can promote the rationalization,upgrading and service level of agricultural structure,while the increase of the endowment coefficient of labor elements hinders the rationalization,upgrading and service level of agricultural structure.The optimization and upgrading of agricultural structure need to improve the relative abundance of capital elements and reduce the relative abundance of labor elements;the change of county agricultural factor endowment structure matches the tendency of technological progress,both of which can promote the upgrading of agricultural structure.Second,TFP of China's county agriculture showed a downward trend in fluctuation,while the overall technical efficiency level of the county was relatively low and technological progress was the main source of improving TFP of agriculture in 2004-2017;there were differences in TFP of agriculture in different regions and TFP index of agriculture in the central.Eastern and western regions showed a downward trend in turn.The trend is that TFP of agriculture in the central region as a whole increases the fastest;TFP,technical efficiency and technical progress of county agriculture do not show a significant trend of ? convergence,but there are significant absolute ? convergence and conditional ? convergence in TFP,technical efficiency and technical progress of agriculture.Third,the improvement of rationalization and upgrading of agricultural structure is conducive to the improvement of TFP,while the improvement of service level of agricultural structure hinders the improvement of TFP.Among them,the improvement of agricultural structure on TFP is mainly achieved by improving technological progress,while rationalization and service of agricultural structure on TFP.The effect of factor productivity is mainly achieved by the combination of technological progress and technological efficiency.The improvement of the level of agricultural structure upgrading promotes TFP of the eastern,central and western counties,and plays the largest role in promoting the eastern counties;the service-oriented agricultural structure hinders the TFP of the eastern,central and western counties,and plays the largest role in hindering the western counties;while the agricultural structure upgrading only promotes the eastern and western counties' agriculture..Fourth,agricultural structure has a non-linear impact on agricultural TFP.When the cultivated land area per capita is taken as the threshold variable,there is a single threshold.With the increase of cultivated land area per capita,the upgrading and rationalization of agricultural structure have an increasing effect on agricultural TFP and decomposition index,and the service of agricultural structure has an increasing effect on agricultural TFP anddecomposition index The influence of index changes from obstruction to promotion;when average labor capital is the threshold variable,there are double thresholds and with the increase of average labor capital,the promotion of TFP and decomposition index by agricultural structure upgrading and rationalization is increasing,while TFP and score by agricultural structure service in the first and second intervals are increasing.When the threshold value of 0.2070 is crossed,the influence of solution index on TFP and decomposition index changes from obstruction to promotion.Fifthly,the county agricultural TFP and agricultural capital factor are the main driving forces for the contribution rate of agricultural output from 2004 to 2017 and the contribution rate of county agricultural TFP to agricultural output presents a "U" trend,while the contribution rate of agricultural capital factor to agricultural output presents a rising trend;the contribution rate of county agricultural economic growth to capital factor investment The degree of dependence tends to increase,which is not conducive to the transformation of agricultural economy to efficiency and quality growth;the increase of the contribution of agricultural TFP can be conducive to the transformation and upgrading of agricultural economic growth;in 2004-2017,the overall county and the urban-rural income gap in the East,middle and west regions showed an inverted "U" pattern,and the urban-rural income gap in the East,middle and west regions showed an inverted "U" pattern According to the law of increasing in turn,it is verified that the increase of TFP can significantly reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas in the county.The possible innovations of this paper are as follows:First,innovation of research objects.From the county level,this paper analyzes the relationship between factor endowment,agricultural structure upgrading and TFP by using China's county level agricultural panel data from 2003 to 2017.In the past,relevant research has been carried out from the provincial or municipal level and the available literature has not seen the county level as the research object of TFP.Second,the innovation of research perspective.To explore the influence mechanism of factor endowments on agricultural TFP,introduce the theory of new structural economics into the field of agriculture,take factor endowments as the research starting point of agricultural structure,whether the change of factor endowments leads to the upgrading of agricultural structure and whether the upgrading of agricultural structure promotes the upgrading of TFP.At the level of agriculture,there is no previous research on TFP from this perspective.Third,innovation of research ideas.In the aspect of agriculture,the influence of structural upgrading on agricultural TFP has not been discussed by predecessors.Based on the analysis of the influence of structural upgrading on agricultural TFP,this study further reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear influence of structural upgrading on agricultural TFP. |
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