Dynamic Change And Prediction Analysis Of Landscape Pattern In Tianfu New Area Based On RS And GIS

With the growth of urban population and the needs of social and economic development,the process of urbanization is accelerating.The problems of insufficient resources,environmental pollution and ecological security in the process of urbanization have seriously affected the sustainable development of cities.The quantitative analysis of the dynamic evolution of urban landscape pattern is particularly important,and the prediction of landscape pattern change can provide valuable reference information for urban spatial distribution and ecological environment protection.This article takes the Tianfu New Area of Sichuan Province as the research object,with the support of RS and GIS technology,the landscape types of remote sensing images,which have a time span of nearly 15 years and 3 phases in the area of 2000,2009 and 2014,are divided.The index of landscape type transfer matrix,dynamic change degree,and the landscape pattern index of class level and landscape level are calculated respectively.The landscape pattern characteristics and dynamic changes of Tianfu New Area in 15 years are analyzed,and CA-Markov model is constructed to predict the landscape grid in Tianfu New Area in 2020.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Through the analysis of the landscape dynamic evolution of the 3 period data,it can be seen that during the 15 years from 2000 to 2014,the dynamic changes of the landscape types in the Tianfu New Area are very strong,and the structure has changed.the landscape type with the largest land use proportion in the landscape of Tianfu New Area was agricultural land,and the area of agricultural land is decreasing at a fast speed.The area of other land and construction land is increasing rapidly,and the area of woodland increases.The above conclusion is mainly due to the intensification of urbanization and the occupation of cultivated land by construction land,resulting in the gradual decrease of cultivated land.Under the policy of returning farmland to forests,part of the cultivated land was converted into woodland.(2)Combined with a variety of landscape index models,the temporal and spatial patterns of landscape pattern in the study area were analyzed.The analysis of global scale type shows that the change of patch shape of cultivated land and woodland landscape is asimple and complicated trend,and the shape of construction land,water and other land use landscape gradually change to complex and irregular trend,and cultivated land,construction land and other land use landscape,the extent of breaking and fragmentation is enhanced,water and woodland landscape are enhanced.The degree of fragmentation is weakened.On the global scale landscape level analysis,the area of Tianfu New Area landscape area difference is narrower,the distribution is more uniform,the overall landscape connectivity level decreases,and the degree of agglomeration is weakened.On the landscape level of the gradient scale,the highest value of the peak diversity index curve of the first five gradient zones all appeared in the urban fringe,and the degree of agglomeration among the patches in the first gradient zone was higher.(3)The CA-Markov model was constructed to simulate the landscape pattern of Tianfu New Area in 2020.Compared with the 2014 data analysis,it was found that the agricultural land area continued to decrease,the construction land and the woodland continued to rise,and the water and other land use changed little,and basically tended to be stable.Patch connectivity increased and patches distributed evenly.