| The area of Hangzhou Bay is the Country’s developed urban and industry cluster and also an important transition zone of coastal wetland from north to south, where there is kinds of wetland. However, under the interference of long-term unreasonable human activities, the area of wetland there decrease constantly, and the ecosystem are facing a huge damage, meanwhile the problem of environmental pollution becomes more and more critical, which causes a great danger to the survival and sustainable development of the Hangzhou Bay wetland.In this paper, taking the wetland of the south area of Hangzhou Bay for example, on the basis of the information of remote sensing images in2001and2009, firstly the division of landscape types is carried on with the help the software of Erdas Imagine9.2, and then the change of land use is studied though the index of landscape dynamic degree and information entropy etc; secondly the change law of the landscape pattern is analyzed using the landscape pattern indexes calculated by the software of Fragstats3.3, and then the relationship between the evolution of landscape pattern and influence of nature, society and economy is discussed. At last, in support of the software of IDRISI Andes15.0, the CA-Markov Model is constructed, and then it will simulate the landscape pattern of the south area of Hangzhou Bay in2017, based on the result of prediction, the measures to promote the sustainable development of this wetland are discussed. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the current situation and the change law of the wetland landscape pattern in the south bank of Hangzhou Bay, and also to explore the influencing factors of encouraging the formation and change of this landscape pattern, on this basis, the future landscape pattern of the south bank wetland of Hangzhou Bay will be predicted, and then the suggestions to be able to improve the conservation and sustainable development of the south bank wetland of Hangzhou Bay will be proposed.The main conclusions in this paper are shown as below:(1) In the period from2001to2009, great changes had taken place in the pattern of land use in the south bank of Hangzhou Bay and the system of land use developed in the ordered direction. The highest level of increase is the construction land containing mainly urban and rural settlements, and the highest level of reduction is the unused land (including coastal beach and coastal marshes).(2) The landscape pattern of the south bank wetland of Hangzhou Bay changes significantly between2001and2009. The overall landscape pattern went to the diversification, and the degree of landscape fragmentation gradually deepened; the patch shape became more complex, and the area of different types of patches tended to be uneven, and the advantages patches of the non-wetland landscape types mainly containing dry land landscapes and urban and rural settlements had an obvious effect. The area of dry land landscape, urban and rural settlements and shallow waters increased significantly, while the natural wetland containing mainly coastal beach and coastal marshes dropped greatly. Almost all landscape types were involved in the process of transforming to the urban and rural settlements, but the main source was the natural wetland containing mainly coastal beach and coastal marshes, artificial wetland landscape such as paddy field landscape and dry land landscape. From the view of the classification of wetland, the transforming from natural wetland to other types of landscape was obvious.(3) The analysis about the influence factors of the landscape pattern shows that the natural factors such as the altitude, slope, distance from the administrative center and transport routes have a great impact on the change of landscape pattern; and the socio-economic factors such as population growth, economic development and related policies and regulations is the main reason for the constant change of landscape pattern. In this paper the qualitative and quantitative analysis of these factors are carried on, which will provide the conversion rules for the simulation of the future landscape pattern of the south bank wetland of Hangzhou Bay.(4) Using the CA-Markov model to simulate the landscape pattern of the study area in2009and comparing the simulation results with the actual landscape pattern chart, the Kappa coefficient of precision inspection of0.7585, which indicates that the model is fine and confident. After the precision inspection, the landscape pattern in2017is simulated. The results shows that in the period from2009to2017, the change of the landscape pattern in the area of Hangzhou Bay is obvious:the area of natural wetland, such as shallow waters, coastal beach and coastal swamps etc, decreases significantly; in other landscapes, the area of dry land landscapes and woodland landscape reduces, and the urban and rural settlement area significantly increase; the landscape fragmentation goes in a deeper level, and the number of patches increases, and the landscape diversity has an upward trend, which means that the impact of human activity on the landscape pattern of the Hangzhou Bay area continues to deepen.(5) Based on the analysis about the prediction for the landscape pattern of the south bank area of Hangzhou Bay, the paper eventually proposes four advices to promote the sustainable development of the south bank wetland landscape of Hangzhou Bay:firstly, land remediation should be strengthened to promote the optimization of landscape pattern; Secondly, a long-term plan must be set down to protect natural wetland; thirdly, the monitoring and management should be strengthened to achieve the control, governance and repair of wetland pollution; finally, the harmonize of departments should be strengthened and the laws and regulations of wetland protection should be improved. |
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