| Cultivated land,as a kind of important unrenewable natural resources,carries on the material basis of human life,production and social development.With the acceleration of economic development and urbanization process,cultivated land for non-agricultura l construction continues to augment,ecological environment changes frequently,which leads to the rapid increasing pressure of carrying capacity.Meanwhile,people pay more attention to cultivated land protection and management,and constantly strive to al eviate the contradiction between human and cultivated land resources.The cultivated land resources are in the dynamic change.Therefore,it is meaningful to conduct the research on early warning of cultivated land for the analysis of the current situation,and grasping the dynamic changing regulation of cultivated land resources.It contributes to improve the management level of cultivated land and to strengthen the awareness of land protection.Taking Hong ‘an County of Hubei Province as the research area,this paper set up the assessment indicator system of cultivated land resources from the background attributes of cultivated land and the external factors of economy and ecology.Based on JRG sub-cluster statistic theory and GM(1,1)forecasting method,the current situation of cultivated land resources analysis and trend forecasting in the next five years were carried out.Then,combined with the sensitivity analysis of indicators,the regulatory strategies were proposed.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:1.The assessment indicator system of cultivated land was established from quantit y,quality,ecological environment and social economy.The JRG sub-cluster statistics theory was used to establish the two parameters equation,and the parameters were obtained by regression analysis.The results show that the cultivated land resources in 2008 had improved significantly,and decreased significantly in 2011 and 2015 during 2006-2015.The alarm would have appeared in 2011.Principal component analysis was used to analyze driving factors of cultivated land,and three main driving factors were extracted.Compared with national economic grade of cultivated land,the alarm of 2014 and 2015 proved to be approval.2.Based on the data of 2015,the concept of sensitivity was introduced to calculate the sensitivity of indicators.The most sensitive indicators in the four sub-systems of cultivat ed land resources were ecological de-farming ratio,multiple cropping index,amount of fertilizer per unit,and per capita net income of rural residents.The predicted values of the four sensitive indictors were predicted by GM(1,1)forecasting method from 2016 to 2020.The data indicated that ecological de-farming ratio,multiple cropping index and per capita net income of rural residents would increase rapidly,and merely the amount of fertilize r per unit would decrease in the next five years.3.Warning situation which analyzed by the predicted data declared that the state of cultivated land resources would continue to improve,returning to normal levels after 2017.Combined with the index sensitivity and predicted results,the regulatory strategies were designed that the abatement of cultivated land occupation,the management of soil pollut io n and the enhancement of agricultural input should be advocated. |
