| Cultivated land is an important non-renewable resource. It is an inevitable choice for protecting cultivated land resource. On the one hand, it can comprehensively implement Scientific Outlook on Development and realize the sustainable development of eco-society; on the other hand, it plays an important role in promoting the concordant development of economy and society and building a harmonious socialism society. As the core of the problem of "countryside, farmer and agriculture", the problem of cultivated land resource is not only the basis of the production relations of countryside but also vitally relates to the interests of hundreds of millions peasants.Besides, it has a direct impact on economic development and social stability. The security of cultivated land resource is related to food security, social security, ecological security in china. Conducting researches about regional cultivated land resource can put the cultivated land protection policies into practice and provide a theoretical basis and practical reference for ensuring the sustainable use of land resource.With full understanding the history and present situation of cultivated land resource security in the region, this article studied the early warning of cultivated land resource in the future, and proposed some countermeasures of cultivated land resource security. On the basis of widely collecting documentations about the cultivated land resource and land security warning in domestic and abroad, the regional land utilization change characteristics, evolution tendency and their drive -response mechanism have been analyzed.Meanwhile, the security circumstance of cultivated land resource is evaluated from food security and ecological security aspects With qualitatively describing the security of cultivated land resources and the early warning indicator-system, this article has systematically proposed the technical system and the research method about the security of regional cultivated land resource and the early warning research.At the same time, the mathematical statistic analysis and econometric model are used to research the security and early warning of regional cultivated land resource, from aspects such as theory?method?indicator-system and early warning technology. At last, countermeasures have been proposed to promote the healthy operation of regional cultivated land resource, which provide reference and advice for further study.The main contents of this article are as follows:1. Current situation analysis. The status of cultivated land resource is qualitatively appraised from five aspects: quantity, quality, distribution, potential resource and the combination of cultivated land resource and agricultural climate resource in region. The status of cultivated land resource has been quantitatively evaluated from population supporting capacity.2. Land utilization change and its drive - response analysis. It mainly included the characteristics and problems of regional land utilization change, as well as the driving force of land use change and response of society, economy and different subjects.3. Security evaluation of cultivated land resource, which are mainly evaluated from the food security and ecological security. The current food security is objectively evaluated according to grain production consumption from 1997 to 2006. Furthermore, the relevant factors which influence the grain output level are selected, and evaluation indicator-system is constructed. Based on factors and indictor-system, the amount of cultivated land is forecasted in the year of 2010 and 2020, which is maintained to a certain consumption level and a special condition. The model of ecological footprint theory is applied to estimate the per capita ecological footprint, the per capita ecological carrying capacity, and the per capita ecological surplus / deficit and cultivated land ecological security, which is applied to determine the ecological security situation in different periods of time and the three economic regions of Chongqing City.4. The early warning of cultivated land resource security. The main contents are as follows: indicator selection, grade classification and warning scalar prediction and so on. The evaluating indicators are selected and the early warning grades are set on according to the current situation and comprehensive evaluation of cultivated land resource.5. Countermeasures of cultivated land resource security. According to current situation of cultivated land resource, the following suggests have been brought forward. Setting down protection strategies of different functions farmland, strengthening awareness of cultivated land protection, perfecting related laws and regulations about cultivated land protection and innovating the mechanism of basic farmland protection, improving the overall production capacity of cultivated.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1) A net decrease of farmland was amount to 299300 hm~2 from 1997 to 2006. What is worse, the per capita cultivated land only reached 76.42% of the country's average level. The overall quality of cultivated slightly increased in the same term, but results of soil fertility monitors have showed that the quality of farmland have not markedly improved, but declined to some extent in some areas in nearly ten years. (2) During the periods of 2002-2006, the large reduction of farmland and the rapid increase of farmland annual average change rate occurred. The degree of land usage change is in the adjustment periods from 1997 to 2006. Among them, the relative rate has changed fastest in northeastern of Chongqing, least in southeast of Chongqing. But the relative rate has changed complicatedly in "One hour Economic Sphere", which center around the Metropolitan Area. With the distance to metropolitan area increasing, the relative change rate of farmland decreased gradually.(3) Demographic and socio-economic , scientific and technological progress of agriculture?adjustment of agricultural structure and policy systems are four major factors which drive cultivated land usage change. The former three factors have a long-term impact on cultivated land use change. The policy and system factor has played a decisive role in increasing farmland acreage, but it only has a short-term impact. It only alleviates contradiction between the development of society and economy and the reduction of cultivated land to some degree, but can not reverse the declining trend of cultivated land essentially.(4) The loss of cultivated land resource in Chongqing has displayed a characteristic of Kuznets curve. The decreasing amount of cultivated land will accumulatively reach to 81263.60 hm~2 from 2006 to 2020 in Chongqing City. It will separately reduce 57681.83 hm~2 from 2006 to 2010 and 23581.77 hm~2 from 2010 to 2020. The rapid reducing trend in cultivated land will be restrained afterward 2010; In terms of the declining rate, an annual average declining rate of cultivated land will be 0.24% during the period of 2005-2020, the annual average declining rate of cultivated land will be 0.51% during 2006-2010, which is relatively higher than the rate during 2010-2020.(5) The per capita ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Chongqing City has displayed a consistent changing trend during 1997-2005, and the ecological security of cultivated land was in a critical state. However, the deficit phenomenon about per capita ecological capacity of cultivated land took place in 2006, which has land resource environment being in an unsustainable state in Chongqing city.(6) Characteristics that the per capita ecological footprint of cultivated land has displayed are as follows: Southeast of Chongqing > Northeast of Chongqing > One hour Economic Sphere in three economic regions of Chongqing City from 2001 to 2006. The decline rate of per capita cultivated land is fastest in Northeast of Chongqing and slowest in southeast. However, the average yield level is improved rapidly in southeast of Chongqing. The ecological carrying capacity of per capita cultivated land is enhanced gradually in Northeast. In contrast, the ecological carrying is decreased slightly in Southeast of Chongqing. In addition, the per capita ecological capacity of One hour Economic Sphere is the same to that in Chongqing City, which is on a critical ground. The security levels are in a insecurity state in southeast and northeast, and the ecological security of cultivated land is more critical in northeast, which departed from the sustainable track.(7) The analysis and calculation indicate that it will demand an amount of 2184300hm~2 and 2160700hm~2 cultivated land respectively in 2010 and 2020 in Chongqing city, in order to ensure food security of regional population. The security warning rank of cultivated land resource are in the state of moderation and feebleness in the year of 2010 and that of 2020?In addition, the mechanisms for cultivated land resources protection, the protecting emphases and object of different functional areas are investigated in the thesis. Furthermore, the protective countermeasures of cultivated land resource are proposed, which can increase the integrated production capacity of cultivated land resource and stabilize the quantity of ensure farmland. |
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