Research On Early-warning Of Urban Tourism Environment Carrying Capacity

In recent years, with urban tourism's vigorous development, tourism environmentalmanagement's extension and short-term tendency, the urban tourism environmentproblems are prominent day by day. For example, ecological environment system'sdestruction, tourism resources'overdevelopment, scenic areas' continuous overload etc. Asthe magnitude for descriping the natural environment, the economic environment and thesocial environment system, which can withstand the tourism activities' intensity, thetourism environment carrying capacity is not only the important tool of tourism plan,development and management, but also is the key indicator which weighs the degrees oftourism sustainable development, thus studying the present situation and futuredevelopment countermeasure of urban tourism environment carrying capacity is aninevitable tendency.Along with statement of tourism sustainable development's concept, domestic andforeign scholars are unceasingly enrich the urban tourism environment carrying capacity'sresearch in theory and practice, but its unidimensional and static study is a big barrier tofurther research. This article thought that the early warning of urban tourism environmentis an important way to prevent the urban tourism environment system getting worse and tooptimize and regulate it, therefore proposed using the early warning theory and themethod to analyze the tourism environment change process which was caused by tourismactivity multi-dimensionaly, and to solve the feasible question that nowadays the researchon urban tourism environment carrying capacity are lacking of comprehension,systematicness, dynamics and early warning nature, realizing the tourism and the urbanenvironment develop coordinately. Simultaneously this article quantitatively analyze theurban tourism environment carrying capacity through reckoning its urban tourismecological environment carrying capacity, the urban tourism resources space carryingcapacity, the urban tourism economical facility carrying capacity and the urban tourismsociety psychology carrying capacity, and had conducted the experimental research on the urban tourism environment carrying capacity early warning system's structure, character,functional design and the basic mathematical model and so on. Finally this article takesDalian as the example to carry on the empirical analysis, and confirm the early warningsystem's scientificalness and feasibility.