Research On The Early Warning Of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Based On PSR-GM Model

With the rapid industrialization and urbanization in our country,limited land and resources will face a larger and more powerful economic and social activities.In 2017,the central comprehensively deepen reform leading group 35 meetings put forward working requirements of monitoring and early warning.And the work requirements of carrying out the monitoring and early warning of resource and environment carrying capacity.To implement these new requirements,It is necessary to establish a comprehensive evaluation of land resources capacity of the technical system,at the national level to grasp the key areas of land comprehensive carrying capacity.It is not only beneficial to the relaxation of economic development and the relationship between man and land,but also to the harmonious development of the whole economy and society.It is necessary to establish a comprehensive early warning system of land comprehensive bearing capacity.The main idea of essay:based on the "pressure-state-response"(PSR)framework model,the paper constructs the early warning index system of land comprehensive carrying capacity,and makes the importance of each index through the SPSS factor analysis model,which is based on the existing literature and data.On the basis of constructing the early warning index system of comprehensive land carrying capacity of regional land,the early-warning analysis model of land comprehensive carrying capacity of Yiwu City was established.Using the mutation model to calculate the summary of police intelligence index,at the same time in accordance with the principle of equalization for the carrying capacity of the police intelligence level to divide and give meaning,and then analyse the comprehensive carrying capacity of the study area for police intelligence,finally the use of gray GM(1,1)model of the study area the next four years of land comprehensive carrying capacity to predict,combined with police intelligence analysis model for police intelligence analysis,so as to get the cause of police changes,make recommendations.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)A regional land comprehensive bearing capacity warning index system based on PSR framework model is constructed.According to the natural resources endowment and the social economic situation in Yiwu city,comprehensive regional carrying capacity are facedwith the problem,from the viewpoints of pressure,state and response,constructs the land comprehensive carrying capacity pressure warning index foreign with population growth,population density and so on.(2)Use the mutation model to define the regional land comprehensive carrying capacity and the classification of the police force level.Finally,the description of the police force is carried out.Paper according to the equal principle,the land comprehensive carrying capacity early-warning rank is divided into mild alert,moderate alert etc four alert level.As an example,the calculation of early-warning index and alert level each year,from 2008 to 2015 in Yiwu city land carrying capacity of early-warning index and alert level comprehensively,Yiwu city land comprehensive carrying capacity of alert level on the whole,the fluctuation change before the change of the steady decline trend,up from0.9418 in 2008 to 0.9419 in 2015,the alert level at moderate alert level.(3)Using GM(1,1)model to predict the trend of regional land comprehensive bearing capacity.This paper takes Yiwu city as an example,combining with the data of 2008-2014,to predict the police situation in the next four years.According to industry trends predicted results can be seen that the Yiwu city over the next four years of general land comprehensive carrying capacity of the alert level to improve the level is limited,the last in a "mild" alert "level.And with Yiwu international trade comprehensive reform pilot work,land comprehensive carrying capacity of the pressure will be intensified,the land comprehensive carrying capacity will also face a huge challenge.Therefore,Yiwu city should carry out the task of protecting the farmland and ensure the regional grain production capacity;To monitor the source of pollution and control the land pollution.Optimize the industrial structure and vigorously develop the tertiary industry;Strengthen household registration management and strictly control the growth rate of foreign population;To strengthen the development of desulfurization technology and invest more in environmental protection to maintain the regional police force in a controllable range.