Evaluation And Prediction Of Land Resources Comprehensive Carrying Capacity

Shanghai city is one of the three comprehensive gateway cities positioned by The StateCouncil of the People’s Republic of China, being as the municipality and the central city ofthe China. With the population rapid growth and the economy quick development, thephenomenon the water and land resources constraints on the economic and social sustainabledevelopment of the city is more apparent than before. Usually, the harmony coordinationamong the population, the economy development, the resources and the environment stronglysupports the regional sustainable development. Therefore, the co-ordination and adaptionbetween the population, resources and environment is pre-requisite for the future sustainabledevelopment of Shanghai.The land resources carrying capacity of Shanghai being the research target, thedissertation sets up the more relatively integrated assessment system adapting the singleindicator of the―Short Plate Theory‖and the comprehensive assessment System Dynamicssimultaneously; finding out the key constrains through analyzing on the land resourcescarrying capacity during the past10years in Shanghai. It simulates the future development ofShanghai through5assumed development scenarios, demonstrating the advantage anddisadvantage of the different scenarios, which will hold out the framing development strategyof Shanghai. The conclusions and contents as follows:Under the direction of the principle of the completeness, the system, the integration andthe operability, the dissertation has screened out11single indicators as the reference for theassessment, including the constructive land per capita, the floor area ratio, the industrial landrate, the floor space of residential buildings per capita, the cultivated land per capita, the wateravailability per capita, the water consumption amount per unit output value of ten thousandYuan, the percentage of industrial waste water up to the standards for discharge, the publicgreen areas per capita, the percentage of the days with excellent or good air quality and thenumber of land subsidence, addressing the signification and importance of the four categoriesof the land and water resources carrying capacity, the ecology and geology environmentcarrying capacity including dozens of indicators. The dissertation assesses the current situation and forecast the future trend in the next tenyears on the above mentioned11indicators adaption of the method of the state index andconcludes that, firstly, these indicators of the constructive land per capita, the industrial landrate, the water consumption amount per unit output value of ten thousand Yuan and theannual average respirable particle concentration are the―short plate‖factors in comprehensivecarrying capacity of Shanghai being in the crisis status; secondly, the cultivated land percapita, the floor space of residential buildings per capita, the water availability per capita, thefloor area ratio, the annual average daily SO2and the number of land subsidence are the mainconstraint factors being in early warning status; finally, the percentage of industrial wastewater up to the standards for discharge and the public green areas per capita are in ordinarystate being the room to be improved. According to the next10years development trend, It canforesee that, First of all, the situation of these early warning indictors, such as the floor spaceof residential buildings per capita, the annual average respirable particle concentration, thewater availability per capita, the water consumption amount per unit output value of tenthousand Yuan, the number of land subsidence, the public green areas per capita and thepercentage of industrial waste water up to the standards for discharge etc. have beenameliorated, but the level of carrying capacity has not been changed; next, the constraint ofthese indicators including the constructive land per capita, the industrial land rate, thecultivated land per capita and the annual average daily SO2etc. is tending to be strengthened;eventually, the land resource, the environment and the air quality have pressing constraint onthe sustainable development of Shanghai.Beginning with the relationship among the resource, the environment, the population andthe economy development, the dissertation constructs6sub-system computer simulationmodel including population, economy, water, land, ecology and geology based on the theoryof the feedback, adjustment and control, at the same time, these indicators of increase rate ofurbanization、population growth rate、increasing rate of GDP、increasing rate of the tertiaryindustry s ratio、reduce the rate of cultivated area、increasing rate of construction land area、increasing rate of total water、increasing rate of groundwater s net exploration、increasing rateof the public green space are chosen as the control variables group and the parameters aredetermined in order to construct the Shanghai flow diagram of the land carrying capacity system. Finally, the model can achieve a satisfactory result owing to the average relative errorbeing between-4.7%-6.2%.5Socio-economic development model scenarios including economy-priority mode,environment-protection mode, resource-saving mode, the current situation continuation modeand the harmony-development mode are constructed based on the different combination ofparameters determination in the control variables group.The current situation continuation modeIts original carrying capacity (0.3566) in the middle among the5development models,then will increase steadily from2010to2010and outclass the other4modes (except theeconomy-priority mode) between2011and2019, then it will be lower than theharmony-development mode.The economy-priority modeIt has the biggest original carrying capacity (0.3951) among the5development modelsand increases with steady steps in the first5years (2010-2014), reaching the max capacity in2014and then decreasing the lowest (0.3713), besides, its capacity will be lower the other4modes from2018.The resource-saving modeIts original carrying capacity is lower (0.3274), then increase obviously, reaching0.6256in2010. Anyway, the increasing extent is the next only to the harmony-development mode.The environment-protection modeIts original carrying capacity (0.3688) is the next only to the economy-priority mode(0.3951), and both will decrease year after year from2015, being lower than the currentsituation continuation mode, the resource-saving mode and the harmony-development mode.The harmony-development modeIts original carrying capacity (0.2936) is the lowest in2010, but will increase rapidlyfrom2015, reaching the highest (0.7026) among the5modes in2020, furthermore itsincreasing extent is the biggest.In short, the harmony-development mode is the optimal development mode; The currentsituation continuation mode have a good development trend in early prophase, later needimprovement; The economy-priority mode present preliminary development speed because excessive consumption of resources, and anaphase underpowered; The resource-saving modedevelopment trend of bearing state and the order are increasing steadily, can guide thelong-term development planning; The carrying capacity of the environment-protection modeis higher than the economy-priority mode’s after2018.