The Feasibility And Path Analysis Of The “One Belt, One Road” RMB Regionalization

After the international financial crisis in 2008,China has become more and more aware of the current US dollar-based international monetary system there are many drawbacks,which is not conducive to China’s future economic growth and development.Therefore,to get rid of the current international monetary system,to promote the regionalization of the RMB is the trend.At the end of 2013,General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward the "one way all the way" strategy not only created a new pattern of China’s all-round opening to the outside world,promoted the domestic economic restructuring and stable development,but also to promote the stable development of the region and the world,to explore the regionalization of RMB has great significance.The regionalization of renminbi is a huge research topic.This paper studies the feasibility and the related path of the regionalization of RMB in the area of "one area along the way" from the perspective of "country along the way",aiming at " The development of RMB regionalization along the development status quo,dynamic mechanism,path design and implementation strategy to discuss key issues for the region to promote the process of regionalization of RMB to provide positive reform ideas and policy recommendations.The main research contents and opinions are as follows:Based on the optimal monetary area(OCA),OCA measures were used to measure the regionalized cost of RMB in the "one way" along the data of China and 57 countries along the "one way" between 2005 and 2015 Is still very high,and from the trend point of view,China and the "area along the way" regional countries set up the possibility of the optimal currency area is growing.From a specific region,China and South Asian countries,Central Asian countries,Southeast Asian countries and CIS countries,the possibility of constructing the optimal currency area is significantly better than the Eastern European countries and West Asian countries.The flow of trade is the basis and focus of the construction of "all the way along the way".In order to explore the regionalization of the national renminbi along the way of trade from the perspective of trade,this paper uses the PVAR model to carry out trade and renminbi in the same sample country and sample period Regionalized degree of correlation test.The results show that China’s trade with "countries along the way" has a strong role in promoting monetarycooperation between the two countries.Based on the basis of the previous text,this part establishes the interactive model of the space panel,analyzes the "thrust","pull" and "resistance" that affect our country’s trade with the "one side along the way",and explores how to promote the " " Along the national trade,so as to find in the " one way " area to establish the optimal currency area measures and path.The study found that economic import and export,distance,local protection and other factors have a significant impact on China’s bilateral trade with countries along the "one way",and thus can take relevant measures on the basis of this as a "regional along the way" national RMB regionalization Path arrangement.