The Economic Base And Path Choice Of RMB Regionalization

With the sustained slow and uneven growth of the global economy,and constantly enhanced trend of regional economic integration and "fragmentation" of trade agreement,Countries all over the world are facing serious development problems.In this international context,Chinese President Xi Jinping,who traveled to Central Asia and Southeast Asian countries in 2013 proposed the belt and road initiative,which aims to promote the trade contacts of Asian countries and reduce the imbalance of regional development,achieving common development.Furthermore,with the gradual implementation of the belt and road strategy,the trade between China and countries along the belt and road will continue to deepen,the trade scale will keep expanding,and the usage frequency of RMB will also surge,all of these will directly promote the regionalization of RMB in Asia.Considering such,this paper takes the countries along the belt and road as the radiation range of RMB regionalization and employs the SURADF panel unit root test with a Fourier function to empirically analyze the convergence of the 6 economic indicators:GDP,CPI,exchange rate,total reserves,industrial production and trade volume with respect to the two benchmark countries:China and Japan,and determine whether RMB regionalization has the economic base,then provide realistic basis for RMB regionalization.To enhance the accuracy of unit root test,three measures are taken:(1)Use SUR regression to eliminate cross-sectional correlation of panel data.(2)Introduce Fourier series to capture the time series.(3)Obtain the critical value of the ADF test statistic by Monte Carlo simulationThe empirical results suggest that though the convergence of the 6 economic indicators of the countries along the belt and road relative to China is better than Japan,and the convergence intensity is higher on the whole,convergence in China is mainly distributed in Southeast Asia and Central Asia.Based on the regional distribution of economic indicators’ convergence in China,we draw the conclusion that RMB regionalization should go through the process of periphery,and then regionalization finally,that is,firstly,realize the primary stage of RMB periphery;secondly,achieve the advanced period of RMB periphery;finally,achieve RMB regionalization.