The Realistic Route Choice Of Regionalization Of RMB Central Asia Under The Strategy Of The Silk Road Economic Belt

The report of the Nineteenth Congress proposed that we must focus on the construction of the “One Belt and One Road” to strengthen the integration of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the country's major regional strategy,promote the positive interaction with the key regions' opening up inside and outside,actively promote international cooperation in the "Belt and Road",and create a new platform for international cooperation.At the National Financial Work Conference,General Secretary Xi Jinping mentioned the need to expand financial opening to the outside world,steadily promote the internationalization of the RMB,and steadily achieve capital account convertibility.The two major strategies of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the internationalization of the RMB are going shoulder to shoulder and are of great significance to promote the formation of a new pattern of openness.The five Central Asian countries are located in the core hinterland of Eurasia and are the first stop for China to open up to the west.From the perspective of energy resources,economic geography and geopolitics,Central Asia is expected to become the core strategic interest area for China to promote the construction of the Silk Road economic belt.Therefore,in conjunction with the strategy of the Silk Road Economic Belt,the RMB has been promoted to become a currency that is generally accepted by CentralAsian countries for valuation,payment,settlement,and investment reserve,paving the way for the internationalization of RMB.This paper takes the theory of currency substitution,the trinary paradox and the theory of optimal currency area as the theoretical support,and makes thorough analysis of the realistic progress of the regionalization of RMB in Central Asia about local currency settlement,currency swap,RMB export and financial cooperation,but the regionalization of RMB in Central Asia is still on the initial stage,and it still faces many constraints such as large-scale and weak trade,incomplete exchange of the RMB,imperfect financial system,and the game among the major currencies.In addition,this paper uses an econometric model to empirically test the impact of the trade scale,trade structure,investment shares,and currency stability between China and Central Asia's five countries on the regionalization of RMB in the Central Asia.The empirical results show that the bilateral trade scale and trade structure of China and the five Central Asian countries and the currency exchange rate fluctuations in Central Asia have a positive impact on the regionalization of RMB in Central Asia;China's investment share and the proposal of the Silk Road The economic belt strategy has a more significant impact on the regionalization of RMB in Central Asia.The control variable of the per capita GDP of the Central Asian countries is negatively related to the regionalization of RMB in Central Asia.Thedegree of financial market development in central Asian countries and the regionalization of RMB in Central Asia are not related.Finally,this paper proposes a realistic path for the regionalization of RMB in Central Asia.At this stage,we should take the Horgos International Border Cooperation Center as a demonstration point,take the improvement of RMB loans on the large-scale project as an entry point,take deepening the financial infrastructure in Central Asia as a focal point,take promotion of the RMB regional convertibility as a key point and take establishment of the Asian Energy Finance Center as a breakthrough point to gradually increase RMB's status in Central Asia.At the same time,in order to support the regionalization of RMB in Central Asia,this paper proposes to strengthen mutual political trust with relevant countries,make full use of AIIB and other institutions to play the leading role,steadily promote monetary and financial cooperation with Central Asian countries,deepen the reform of the domestic financial system and optimize the trade industry structure.