Analysis On The Evolition Characteristics And Causal Factors Of Regional Structural Change In China's Dairy Industry

In the context of industrialization and the flow of productive factors,China's dairy industry is undergoing a significant regional structural change.Throughout China's dairy industry development over the past 25 years,this paper summarizes the temporal and spatial variation of regional distribution in Chinese dairy sector.Based on the theories,a six-dimensional conceptual framework is constructed by policy factors,feed supply,processing capacity,technological progress,demand and price,social and economic conditions.To examine the impact of the above six factors upon the spatial allocation of milk production in China,a state-level panel data set from the year 2002 to 2014 is used for analysis using the spatial Dubin Model.Results indicate that:1)In the past 25 years,China cow inventory and milk production showed a rising trend in volatility;2)Dairy industry leading producing regions gradually shifted from Northeast,Northwest and South China into Northeast,North China and Northwest.What's more,North China presents a rapidly growing rate;3)Spatial effects:firstly,policy factors and technological progress show a positive spillover effect.Secondly,the demand factors of urban residents' per capita disposable income,socio-economic factors of annual total population and per capita GDP negative spatial spillover effect.Finally,the spatial effect of the raw milk price in the feed supply factors,the output value of dairy enterprises,the number of dairy enterprises,the demand and price factors are not significant.