A Study On Spatial Correlation And Spillover Effect Of Urban Housing Prices In China

In 1998,the State Council issued the notice on further deepening the reform of urban housing system and speeding up the housing construction(GF(1998)No.23),which has epoch-making significance for the development of China's real estate industry and the reform of housing system: it has gradually defined the direction of the reform of China's housing market,and with the deepening of the socialization,commercialization and marketization of the real estate market,it has made great progress One step to promote the reform and development of China's real estate market,so that it entered a new era of in-depth development.According to the past international practice,the important index to test the level of house price is the price to income ratio(PIR).The relevant data shows that the average PIR of all provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2012 is more than 5,which exceeds the market payment capacity.In particular,the PIR of the developed eastern coastal areas has even exceeded 10,and the market payment capacity is seriously overdrawn,which leads to a serious imbalance between market supply and demand,and is not conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market.China,which has 1 / 15 of the world's land area,why does the urban housing price change so much? To solve this problem,most scholars mainly study the causes of house price fluctuation from the time dimension,such as the impact of macroeconomic and financial policies on house price,so as to analyze how the house price will change when the security of macroeconomic system or financial system is affected.However,these studies have obvious defects: it does not take into account the spatial correlation effect of spatial geographical distribution on housing prices,and there are structural imbalances,so there is a lack in explaining the volatility of housing prices.However,the prices in different cities are significant and different.As a typical spatial feature of the real estate market,spatial correlation and spillover effect are undoubted.So what is the regional spatial relevance of urban housing prices in China? What is the degree of spatial spillover effect? Are there regional differences? In view of the above problems,based on the construction of spatial weight matrix,this paper calculates Moran's I and local Moran's I indexes of urban housing prices in China,and then measures the global and local correlation of urbanhousing prices respectively,and establishes a spatial panel model to further study the spatial spillover effect of urban housing prices.At the same time,this paper divides China's real estate market into three regions: the East,the middle and the west,and then explores the regional differences of the spatial spillover effect of China's urban housing prices.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results described in this paper,the following conclusions are drawn: firstly,there is an obvious spatial spillover phenomenon in urban housing prices in China.The change of some factors affecting housing prices will not only directly affect the change of housing prices in this region,but also indirectly affect the change of housing prices in neighboring cities through the spatial spillover effect.At the same time,this kind of influence shows one under different geographical spans The difference between the two.Secondly,by dividing China's real estate market into eastern region,central region and western region,we find that the spillover significance and spillover intensity of housing prices in different regions are different,which shows that the spatial linkage and spillover effect of urban housing prices in different regions have obvious regional differences.Specifically,the spatial spillover effect intensity of house prices in the East is higher than that in the whole country,while the spatial spillover effect intensity of house prices in the central and western regions is significantly lower than that in the whole country.To a certain extent,it can be shown that the house prices in the Eastern region affect the level of house prices in a wider range in the process of spreading to the peripheral regions,thus On the whole,it strengthens the spatial spillover effect of house prices nationwide.The empirical results obtained in this paper can be used for reference to promote the healthy development of China's real estate industry and improve the implementation of real estate policies.