The Duration Of Agricultural Exports And The Empirical Study Of The Influencing Factors In China

China is a large agricultural country with large scale agricultural trade.The trade of agricultural products relates to national food security,which has important research significance.In recent years,the speed of China’s agricultural exports continue to decline,agricultural trade deficit is growing.In order to explain the problems of agricultural product export,this paper analyzes the export duration of agricultural products,and focus on the further research of influencing factor of the trade duration.This paper investigates the related literature reviews on the study of influencing factor of the trade duration.Under the guidance of economic theory,the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method is used to describe the character of agricultural product export.Besides,the agricultural export trade data from 2001 to 2014 is used to empirically analyze the effects of influencing factor of the trade duration.Cox PH model,Weibull model and Exponential model are used Then considering the analysis of the influencing factor of the micro changes in financial crisis.Empirical analysis reaches the following main conclusions:On the side of supply,initial trade volume is helpful to trade duration,total trade and product unit value have reverse effect to trade duration;On the side of demand,inland importing country with huge gdp is not helpful to trade duration,neighboring importing country with huge capita gdp is helpful to trade duration;Besides,there are other factors that play a beneficial role,like bilateral trade volume and free-trade area.Finally,based on the above research conclusion,suggestions related to the export of agricultural product development policy are put forward.