Research On CGE Model For Analysis Of Renewable Energy Policy In Hebei

“ The Twelfth Five Year Plan” has put forward a new reform of energy production and utilization,which can be crystallize as the target of increase the of proportion non-fossil energy consumption to 15% and reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP range from 40% to50% by 2020.Hebei Province,as a big province of energy consumption and carbon emissions,therefore,need to take on larger pressure for the implementation of carbon emissions reduction.The development of renewable energy is very important for China to achieve sustainable development,also a way to avoid the risk of traditional energy price fluctuations.From the point of view of sustainable development,the need to cut carbon dioxide emissions,and the future energy shortages and climate change concerns prompt the government to take policy measures to promote renewable energy development.Further more,there is a good basis for the development of renewable energy in Hebei,for the renewable energy sources are rich in variety and quantity.This study employs a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,to highlight the influence that the subsidies for renewable energy investment may make on energy consumption and carbon emission reduction.This paper first describes the background and significance of this research on renewable energy development policy in Hebei to analyses the necessity and importance of the study;secondly,expounds the present situation of research from aspects of renewable energy policy and the CGE model,so as to provide the reference for the study.After that,a detailed analysis of present utilization situation of energy in Hebei was developed,which shows that fossil energy(including coal,petroleum and natural gas)is the main energy consumption,while renewable energy consumption accounts for only 2% of the total;then,introduces the renewable energy(solar,wind and biomass)utilization model and renewable energy policies,based on which we study renewable energy industry structure.Subsequently,based on the theory of CGE model,and energy consumption,energy policies and energy structure,this paper constructs a CGE model to analyze the renewable energy policy in Hebei,which is subdivided into 7 modules including energy module,production module,trade module,price module,consumption module,equilibrium module and renewable energy module.On the basis of the model construction,the social accounting matrix(SAM)aiming at the analysis of renewable energy policy in Hebei was designed,based on input-output table,then,use the cross entropy method to balance the original SAM matrix;in addition,we provide the value of some key parameters in the model formula.Finally,thispaper,based on the CGE model and SAM matrix of Hebei,analyzes the impacts of renewable policies on the energy consumption,economy,environment and social welfare to provide recommendations for policy making.