Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Renewable Energy Investment Scenario Analysis And Decision Support Research

At present, China has the world’s energy production and consumption country, but per capita energy consumption level is very low. With the development of economy and society, China’s energy demand will continue to grow. Renewable energy, resource potential, environmental pollution low, sustainable use, is in favor of green energy and harmonious development between man and nature. However, compared with conventional energy generation investment, renewable energy investment has a greater investment risk. Such as the current generation cost of renewable energy is still higher than conventional energy; Wind, solar and other renewable energy sources and intermittent characteristics of volatility, large-scale systems connected to the grid will secure stability and economic operation of power challenges; Difficulty of biomass collection and transport of large, pollution control; Development of renewable energy policies need to support national needs, and efforts related policies, implementation, implementation and so are the risks in renewable energy investments.Therefore, regardless of the investors in renewable energy, or renewable energy investment policy-makers are urgently needed a quantifiable risk investment decision support tools. Based Energy-Economy-Environment decision support software platform (Energy-Economy-Environment Decision Support System Platform, referred 3EDSS platform) sustainable development, Qualitative and quantitative analysis, Through the "solar, wind and biomass waste incineration power generation" Project Investment Planning Scenario sensitive issues were analyzed and forecast results and policy recommendations.Research design energy investment planning scenario analysis and decision support model for renewable Beijing, Tianjin, to develop renewable energy development investment plans of relevant government departments for policy makers to provide theoretical and scientific basis.In this paper, do the following:(1) Renewable energy from solar power, wind power, waste incineration power generation three major directions, analyzes their investment environment, including features, investment policies, investment risk, to lay the foundation for the establishment of the follow-up model.(2) The use of fuzzy clustering analysis technique to study the photovoltaic power generation planning and decision-making models. In the country’s 31 provinces (municipalities) in 2012 and 2014 and net cumulative PV capacity (MWp) based on data, fuzzy clustering analysis, and ultimately the country’s 31 provinces (municipalities) are divided into seven categories. Although with the adjustment of the national macro-planning policies of photovoltaic power generation, photovoltaic power generation planning structure provinces will make the appropriate adjustments to optimize, but in theory to which, according to the last three years calculated from the classification results, planning for the future PV or instructive.(3) Real options theory, investment planning and decision-making model of wind power. Analysis results CDM prices rise, wind power electricity price rise, the investment costs and operating costs decline, help investors start wind power projects, and gives the corresponding reference coefficient.(4) Using regression analysis theory, the NIMBY waste incineration power generation siting. According to an example of the NIMBY attitude, anxiety and risk of cognitive three variables multiple regression analysis, the regression equation. Finally, the operational mechanism of avoidance NIMBY.(5) Design and implement a "Beijing, Tianjin and renewable energy investment planning scenario analysis and decision support research" system, and the system is integrated with 3EDSS, data sharing interface.