| As a country of large population,grain have an important impact on the development of our economic.With the reform and opening-to policy,the relationship between China and The world,as well as the international market has a great impact on the domestic market.The production of China’s grain has increased year by year,but with the accelerated process of industrialization and urbanization,the domestic demand for food is also increasing,the consumption structure has been upgraded,leading to the contradiction of demand has also become an important issue.The gap of supply and demand on the grain is gradually widening,but rate of grain self-sufficiency will decline,with the increasing the degree of dependence on foreign food,imports of food are being increased year by year.China’s food security is facing severe challenges.Therefore,it is necessary to pay attention to the grain import.In this paper,I can use the environment of the international and domestic food market as the background.Firstly,I analize the situation of China’s supply and demand on grain and the status as well as the pattern of imports.Secongly,the impact by imports of domestic grain is analized,including the affection of national safety of grain,agriculture and society.Shirdly,I analize the main factors that affect the increase of grain import,such as the fluctuations in international prices,supply of international,fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate,concentration of imported sources,fluctuations in domestic prices,production of domestic grain,etc.Then,by establishing a VAR model and impulse response analysis as well as variance decomposition,I take this method to the empirical analysis on the factors which can affect the increase of China’s food import.In order to avoid a series of proplem in China’s grain import,this paper puts forward the corresponding measures,mainly including improvent for the international grain price in regulation mechanism.Along strengthening international cooperation to achieve mutual benefit and win-win situation.At the same time,it is necessary to improve the price mechanism of the grain market and to strengthen the grain supply in case of importing the production capacity of the domestic food,etc.By these measures,it is import for our country to protect grain safety. |
