| Grain is an important commodity which is indispensable for human to survival,reproduction and development.Grain security is an important support for the successful realization of the chinese path to modernization.Under the new development pattern with the domestic circulation as the mainstay,domestic and international dual circulation to boost each other,the risk of grain imports caused by the concentration of import sources has become a real issue for China to ensure grain security.The "Belt and Road" initiative provides a solution to this problem.The further deepening of grain trade cooperation between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" will be conducive to the export opportunities for economic development of the countries along the "Belt and Road",as well as to the expansion of China’s import channels and the reduction of grain import concentration.The bilateral countries will achieve mutual benefits and win-win situation.However,most of the countries along the "Belt and Road" are developing countries with relatively backward economic development.Weak infrastructure,customs environment and other aspects lead to a low degree of trade facilitation.It seriously affects the stability as well as further deepening of grain trade cooperation between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road".Therefore,in the context of the current restriction of grain trade between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road",based on tapping the potential of grain trade in the countries along the "Belt and Road",this paper attempts to explore the impact of trade facilitation level of grain importing source countries along the "Belt and Road" on China’s grain import trade.Using the data from 2006-2019,the trade facilitation level index system is firstly constructed by selecting indicators with the characteristics of grain,and the level of trade facilitation of the sample countries is calculated and analyzed by using the entropy weight method to determine the index weights.Subsequently,a stochastic frontier gravity model was constructed to empirically test the impact of trade facilitation level on China’s grain import trade.Further measure and analyze the trade efficiency and trade potential of each country,and explore their trade expandability.The research results show that the level of trade facilitation in the grain importing source countries along the "Belt and Road" is relatively low overall.And most of them are at the level of inconvenience.So there is a large room for improvement;Trade facilitation in the importing source countries has a significant positive impact on China’s grain imports.The level of infrastructure in the importing source countries has a significant negative effect on China’s grain import trade.The level of customs environment,the level of institutional environment,and the level of financial and information and communication services in the importing source countries all have a significant positive effect on grain import trade;Most of the grain importing source countries along the "Belt and Road" have low trade efficiency,and there is a larger space for improvement.Argentina and Cambodia have a relatively large value of trade potential.Cooperation in grain trade can be promoted with emphasis.Based on the results of the study,relevant policy recommendations are proposed.Such as closer grain trade cooperation targeting countries with higher trade potential.Based on the "Belt and Road" initiative to strengthen the policy coordination,financial integration and facilities connectivity with grain importing source countries.Facilitating unimpeded trade and achieve win-win cooperation. |
