| Grain security has always been an important issue causing widespread concern from policy-makers and researchers. Recent years,because of climate, grain stock and growing fuel cost ,bio-fuel's springing up and agricultural product's demand rising persistently, a great deal of speculation fund entering grain future market,and global financial crisis which is led by America subprime mortgage crisis,worldwide grain price rising suddenly and sharply. China is not only a great grain producing country but also a great grain consuming country, her main grain categories'trade quantity takes up important market share, Recently,Grain issue became the focus once again.In China grain is defined as following :cereal ,bean and potatoes.And also according to professor Hou Xuehuang's definition created in 1981 the"general grain"means"all things that can be consrmed and srpply enough nutrition".Extended concept of grain provides a new idea abort how to guarantee the grain security of China. According to the statistics from FAO: we designate the price index of grain from 1998-2000 as 100, if the price index rises up to 10%, we call it high price. In November of 1974 FAO defined the grain security as"anybody at any time can gets enough food to maintain his life and health". In the last 30 years, the basic connotation of reserving the subsistence never changed. Due to the special characteristics of grain problem, agriculture weak industry theory and agriculture external economy theory are the key theories of this paper.The strategy of China's grain import-export has developed in 5 steps, that is from the foundation to 1978, foreign trade was only a supplement of the economy method; from the summer of 1979, the strategy was adjusted; 1992 the market economy was established, when followed by negotiation with WTO, China begin to deal with the grain trading program with the regulation of WTO; after entry of WTO China's agriculture policy and trade policy was adjusted on tariff, customs quota, export competition etc. because of the restriction of multilateral trade agreement and related laws; From 2005 China began to performs the export suppression strategy, in order to ensure the domestic grain supply, against the inflation because of the rising in grain price.From 80s last century till the beginning of this century, we can divide it into 2 stages, first during the whole 80s, in both developed and developing countries there are rapid rising in grain export trade, but decreasing in price and income of grain trade. Trade protectionism prevailed; In 90s"Agreement on agriculture"was reached. It changed the development direction of world grain trade to some extent. Developed countries in the food trade continued to maintain the advanced position; regional grain trade increased, regionalization strengthened; new trade protectionism come into being. Nowadays, on the international grain market, sharp fluctuations in grain prices, global grain crisis expanding. Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as the food security of Europe are affected.Worldwide high grain price affects on China's grain price and food imports -exports as following: rising domestic prices of agricultural products; sharp drop in corn exports; food import and export trade order has been disrupted. by related analysis and Granger test of domestic food prices and international prices of grain, we can come a conclusion: both domestic and international markets overall trend in grain prices are basically the same, the relevance of the different varieties of grain prices is different, changes dynamically; the international market trend of grain prices and domestic prices influence each other, the former is greater than the latter, the influence time decreases.Recent years, the influence of global economic recession on the global food production and consumption can not be ignored. In term of production, food producers can not get the necessary funds and loans as easily as before; For consumption, the economic crisis will reduce the consumption of meat but increase consumption of cereal. Meanwhile, in poor countries rising grain prices lead to more population in hunger. In order to protect China's long-term grain security, grain import-export trade strategies adjusted as following: Improving grain import-export trade system; strengthening grain production capacity; Deepening reform on the grain distribution system and improving the grain circulation system; Perfecting the grain reserve system; Improving the food processing system. On this basis, China's use the international grain market to protect grain security should be: to enhance study work on grain issues; to establish a stable supply channels; to make use of futures tools; to provide an appropriate policy support; to explore "going out" strategy actively. |
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