Research On China's Grain Import And Grain Security

Along with the trends of China's grain consumption growing faster than grain production, the domestic grain demand gap need to seek more grain imports. Especially since joining to WTO, China has experienced rapidly growth of grain import. According to international trade theory, strengthen the grain trade can gain comparative advantages, and promote the rational allocation of resources. However, as a strategic material, grain's over-reliance on imports may lead to unexpected trade risk, such as grain embargo, supply shortage in international market, which may threaten national security.In this research, a multiple linear regression model is established to analyze the influence degree of the determinants of grain production. A natural logarithmic equation and a linear equation are used for predicting China's domestic grain demand gap in the next decade. The indicators, including net import dependence degree and import concentration, are adopted to study the status of grain import. By international comparison and case study, trade-off of the grain comparative advantage with trade risks is measured. The Results is that China has no comparative advantage in grain production. The net import dependence degree goals set in response to the risk of grain trade are too low, and the import concentration is too high, which make our country less able to trade risk aversion. And according to the results, some policy about improving grain trade situation and ensuring grain security were proposed.Compared with previous studies, the relative indicator of market concentration in industrial economics analysis- Gini coefficient is adopted to measure grain import concentration, which can make the import concentration measurable.