Coupling Coordinative Degree Research Of Natural Resources-Economy-Environment System In Urumqi-Changji Area

In the context of sustainable development as the theme of the historical background,the coordinated development of natural resources?economy and ecological environment has been drawn unprecedented attention. Natural resources—economy—environment coordination development level usually has been measured through quantitatively calculating the degree of coupled coordination among these three subsystems. Although more and more domestic scholars have lunched the studies of natural resources—economy—ecological environment coupling coordination degree from different spatial scales, the research from the perspective of coordinated development trend is really rare. To begin with, based on the theory of coupling coordination degree and grey prediction, the coupling coordination degree of natural resources—economy—ecological environment of 8cities in Urumqi—— Changji area has been calculated, at the same time, the time and spatial evolution of coupling coordination has been discussed by means of ArcGIS10.0.Then, gray prediction model GM(1,1) has been used to simulate and predict the coupling coordination degree of natural resources—economy—ecological environment of 8cities in Urumqi—Changji area during 2016—2018.The results can be summarized as follows. First, the coupled coordination development level of natural resources—economy—environment in Urumqi—Changji area has been slowly rising stage during the study period,from 0.250 in 2001 to 0.483 in 2014, increased by 0.233. Overall coordination type change is: from moderate disorders in 2001, became close coordination in2014, develop slowly. Second, spatial coupling coordination degree: showed obvious regional integration and regional differences, namely, three cities in central coupling coordination degree has been ahead of the east and the west,and the coupling coordination degree of the two counties in western and is better than three east county. Third, through the general GM(1, 1) model to predict, in the future, during 2016 — 2018 as Urumqi-Changji area of most cities natural resources—economy—ecological environment coupled coordination development level continue to rise, the overall development situation is more optimistic, but, Fukang?Qitai?Mulei are still in the barely coordination stage, coupling coordination development level rise is small, it is difficult to transform into a new stage. However, there are significantdifferences of the coupling coordination development level among regions in Urumqi—Changji area in the future.