A Study On Coupling Coordination Degree Model And Forecast Of Oil-economy-environment System

Oil is a scarce non-renewable resource, which is an important support for the development of society and economy in human. Lots of oil is exploited and utilized, on the one hand, it promotes the development of economy, on the other hand, it brings some damage to the natural environment, if we let it have its swing development, and we will face the situation that the contradiction will be increasingly fierce between oil resources shortage, pollution more serious and increasingly growing economic. We study the coordinated and sustainable development of oil resource, economic growth and environmental protection, which it plays an important key role. The mineral resources of western region are very rich, and in the process of promoting the great exploitation of western china, oil resource makes great contribution to economic growth, however, the ecological environment is very fragile in the western region, in the process of exploitation, utilization and processing, we give the ecological environment to make serious damage. If things go on like this, it will not only cause great influence on economic development, but also the human survival environment will be permanently lost. Therefore, the article takes western region which have the rich mineral resources and a fragile ecological environment as the research object and use statistical data from 1996 to 2013, it mainly studies the coupling coordinated development situation between oil, economy and environment and the future tend in the western region, and get the corresponding results. It mainly concludes the following aspects:(1) By analyzing the current development in the western region of oil, economy and environment, we can find that economy is increasingly growing in the western region, industrial foundation is strengthened gradually, and oil consumption enhances little by little, but we also should take attention to the bottlenecks which oil will bring; meanwhile, the environment bears enormous pressure.(2) By constructing the econometric model between oil consumption and economic growth, we bring Cobb-Douglas production function to analyze the measuring units between oil consumption and economic growth, and does Granger causality test. From the test result, we find that oil consumption in the western region can promote the economic growth; moreover, economic growth in the western region can promote labor input and investment increasing, and comprehensive technical level enhancing can promote oil consumption.(3) By analyzing gray relation between oil consumption and the discharge of “the three wastes” in the western region, we reach a result that oil consumption has a higher correlation with industrial waste gas emission, total amount of discharge for industrial solid wastes, and discharge amount of industrial waste water.(4) By using gray system prediction method, we predict and analyze carbon dioxide emission produced by oil consumption in the western region. From the trend of the predicted values, with the accelerated process of industrialization, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions will continue to rise.(5) Based on analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve theory on the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution, we obtain a conclusion that the relation between economic growth and environmental pollution in the western region does not meet the standard of EKC relationship.(6) Based on VAR impulse response function method, we make dynamic analysis between economic growth and environmental pollution. We cannot ignore the protection of the environment along with the rapid economic growth, economic growth will increase emissions of environmental pollutants; meanwhile, the reaction of environmental pollution on the economy has not fully come out, therefore, we need to define environmental pollutant emissions caused by external benefit, and step up its environmental awareness.(7) By building evaluation index system of oil-economy-environment system and building evaluation model of comprehensive development level of oil, economy, environment subsystem and total system in the western region, we finally obtain : the trend of the comprehensive development level between oil system and economy system are gradually rise, the comprehensive development level of environment system is higher than 1996’s and presents a “N” type development trend; the comprehensive development level of oil-economy-environment system in the western region rises slowly, and it reflects that coordinated development of oil-economy-environment system is gradually in good condition, but it does not get the best.(8)By analyzing the coupling coordination degree of between three subsystems and the total system, the coupling coordination degree of oil-economy system get better, the coupling coordination degree of between oil-environment system, economy-environment system and oil-economy-environment system are primary phase of good coordination development, they show that the coupling coordination degree of them can be improved still further.(9) The BP neural network model can forecast the development degree of oil-economy-environment system in the western region in coming years, the result that it has not reached the stage of high quality coordinated development, so by taking corresponding measures to improve the coupling coordination degree of oil-economy-environment system in the western region with move towards greater step become imperative.