Research On Coupling Coordination Degree Of Regional Tourism-economy-environment

In the context of sustainable development as the theme of the historicalbackground, the coordinated development of regional tourism, economic andecological environment has been drawn unprecedented attention. Regionaltourism-economy-environment coordination development level usually has beenmeasured through quantitatively calculating the degree of coupled coordinationamong these three subsystems. Although more and more domestic scholars havelunched the studies of regional tourism-research-environment coupling coordinationdegree from different spatial scales, the research from the perspective of spatialautocorrelation is really rare.To begin with, based on the theory of coupling coordination degree and spatialautocorrelation, the coupling coordination degree of tourism-economy-environment of17cities in Shandong Province has been calculated, at the same time, the time andspatial evolution of coupling coordination has been discussed by means ofArcGIS10.0. Then, with constructing spatial weights matrix, spatial autocorrelationanalysis has been applied to explore the rule of coupled coordination development of17cities in Shandong Province from the global and local perspectives by using ofexploratory spatial data analysis tools GeoDa095i and ArcGIS10.0. Finally, grayprediction model GM (1,1) has been used to simulate and predict the couplingcoordination degree of tourism-economy-environment of17cities in Shandongprovince during2013-2017.The results can be summarized as follows. First, the coupled coordinationdevelopment level of tourism-economy-environment in Shandong Province has stilllingered in primary coordination, without any further improvements during the studyperiod. The environmental quality has been the bottleneck of restricting thecontinuous development of tourism and economy. Second, the spatial feature ofcoupling coordinated level evolution show significant differences. The couplingcoordination degree has presented gradually rising trend from western part to easternsection of Shandong province, which conforms a three-level ladder distributionpattern. Third, during the study period, the coupling coordination degree showed asignificant positive correlation in the global space. That is to say, the region wherehigh-level (or low) coordination coupling displayed obviously geographicagglomeration and the overall trend will enhance. In the local space, spatialagglomeration type of at least70.6%the cities in Shandong Province has appeared remarkable "high (HH)"and "low (LL)"trend. However, only a few cities with theproportion of less than29.4%belong to "high and low (HL)" and "low and high(LH)"pattern. In short, the local agglomeration degrees of coupling coordination inShandong province have showed different mode in different cities. Fourth, theGM(1,1) prediction results reveals that the coupling coordination development levelof most of the cities in Shandong province will rise in the coming five years. Theoverall development situation is rather optimistic, whereas the coupled coordinationdegree in most cities is still in the stage of primary coordination and lowerintermediate coordination. Because of the lesser extent of enhance of coupledcoordination during2013-2017, it is difficult to transform into a new stage. However,there are significant differences of the coupling coordination development levelamong regions in Shandong province in the future.