| At the present stage,global warming is increasingly intensified,and the ensuing greenhouse effect is also deepening,carbon emission has gradually become the subject of people’s research,China has put forward a new environmental goal to actively respond to climate change,namely to achieve carbon peak in 2030,to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060.Based on this background,this paper takes the Yangtze River Economic Belt,a major development strategic region in China,as the research object,and takes sustainable development theory and low-carbon economic theory as theoretical guidance to discuss the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region and predict and analyze its future development trend.Firstly,according to the energy consumption data of each region in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the carbon emission of each region in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2004 to 2019,and the development status of the influencing factors of carbon emission in this region is analyzed,which lays a foundation for the analysis of the influencing factors in chapter4.Secondly,Kaya decomposition and LMDI model were used to systematically analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region.Then,according to the degree of influence,economic factors with greater influence were selected for decoupling analysis.To further study the relationship between economy and carbon emissions;Finally,on the basis of the above analysis of influencing factors,important influencing factors are selected to construct the STIRPAT model,and ridge regression method is used to determine the parameters.Combined with scenario analysis,the period from 2020 to 2035 is divided into four periods,with2020 as a single year and 2021-2025 as one period.2026-2030 is the first period,and2031-2035 is the last period.The future development of each influencing factor is set at low,medium and high speed,and 11 possible scenarios are effectively and reasonably combined for prediction.Based on the comprehensive research process,the following conclusions are drawn :(1)in recent years,carbon emission in the Yangtze river economic belt region accounts for one third of the national total,with Jiangsu province and Zhejiang province having the highest carbon emission,and Chongqing municipality and Jiangxi province having the lowest carbon emission.(2)The main factors affecting carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are economic efficiency and energy intensity.Before2009,energy intensity was the most influential factor.After 2009,the influencing factor of energy intensity gradually decreased and the influence degree of economic efficiency gradually deepened.(3)State analysis of decoupling between carbon emissions and economic efficiency: During the whole research period,the decoupling effect of economic efficiency and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has experienced roughly three stages.The first stage: from 2004 to 2009,the decoupling state kept changing from expansion connection-expansion negative decoupling-strong decoupling-weak decoupling-weak decoupling-expansion negative decoupling,indicating that the relationship between carbon emissions and economy was still very unstable.The second stage: from 2009 to 2015,the decoupling relationship changed from long-term weak decoupling to short-term strong decoupling,indicating that during this period,the regional governments took effective measures to reduce emissions and achieved certain results,maintaining a relatively short-term strong decoupling state.During the third stage(2015-2019,decoupling relationship is weak decoupling-strong decoupling-weak decoupling,constantly shift between the weak decoupling,show to strong decoupling and maintain stability still need certain process,a relatively short time is difficult to achieve strong decoupling effect,the government should always adhere to the energy conservation and emissions reduction,can better to decouple strong direction.(4)The carbon emission of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2020 to 2035 is predicted.Among the 11 scenarios,scenario 4 is most consistent with the future development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,that is,the carbon emission of the Yangtze River Economic Belt will peak in 2030 with a peak value of4,0222.65 million tons. |
