Analysis On Industrial Structure Change And Its Effect On Carbon Emissions In Gansu Province

As the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection is intensifying, developing low carbon economy become the inevitable trend of economic and social development. When it comes to China, which is in the economic transition period, the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is widely considered to be one of the effective ways of low-carbon development in our country. In the process of economic development, industrial carbon emissions accounts for the highest proportion, especially the carbon emissions of heavy industry. Gansu province is one of the western region whose economic development level are backward. Its industrial structure gives priority to heavy industry, forming the current industrial system which mainly consists of petrochemical industry, non-ferrous metallurgy, mechatronics engineering etc. With the continuous development of economy, energy consumption increases rapidly, placing growing pressure on the ecology and environment. Therefore, it has important and practical significance to study the influence of the alteration of industrial structure on carbon emissions, which may help Gansu province to pursue low-carbon development.Basing on the panel data in Gansu province and using a combination of Industrial Economics, Environmental Economics, Regional Economics and other related theories, on one hand, the thesis has systematically analyzed the changes of industry structure and energy consumption situation of each department. On the other hand, it scientifically sets up the industrial carbon emissions measurement system of Gansu province, and further explore the effects of industrial structure change on carbon emissions through the method of decomposition analysis, and specially puts forward suggestions of industrial structure optimization at last. The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)At present, the economic development in Gansu province is in the period of industrialization, whose industrial structure belongs to the "Two, Three, One" type. That is to say, the proportion of the primary industry in GDP is in decline. And the volatility of the proportion of secondary industry is wave-drop. While, the volatility of the proportion of tertiary industry is wave-rise. Especially after 2010, the proportion of secondary industry in Gansu province decreased year by year, and the proportion of the tertiary industry raised year by year. So the evolution trend of the industrial structure is “Three, Two, One”, which develops in an active direction.(2)The energy consumption appears wave-rise trend in Gansu province, whose consumption structure is still mainly coal, oil and other fossil fuels. Coal and crude oil account for more than 80% of energy consumption, which shows that Gansu province has great pressure on the demand for coal, oil and other non-renewable resources.(3)On the overall, the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Gansu is growing, except in 2009 when the carbon emissions dropped. But it couldn't affect the overall trend of growth. Carbon emissions is mainly concentrated in the industry, whose proportion of carbon emissions has been more than 80%, belonging to the necessary emissions. With the development of economy, the growth of carbon emissions will continue; on the other side, although the carbon emissions is increasing, it mainly concentrates on a few industries, which facilitates technological improvement, and then achieve the purpose of energy saving and emission reduction.(4)With the continuous development of economy, the carbon emissions is raising while the carbon intensity(carbon emissions per unit of GDP) is showing a clear downward trend. It indicates that the energy efficiency is increasing in Gansu province, which gradually improves the condition of high energy consumption and high emissions during economic development.(5)From 1995 to 2014, economic development is the main factor to boost the growth of industrial carbon emissions. And energy intensity is the main factor which can restrain carbon emissions growth. The industrial structure could inhibit the growth of carbon emissions to a certain extent. While, the energy structure has little contribution to the growth of for carbon emissions. The change of industrial proportion can directly affect the change of carbon emissions. The rise of industrial proportion will lead to a positive industrial structure effect, promoting the growth of carbon emissions; the fall of industrial proportion will bring forth a negative industrial structure effect, inhibiting the growth of carbon emissions.