Study On Industrial Structure Adjustment Of Jiangsu Province Under Carbon Emissions Constraint

With the continued warming of global climate,the emissions of greenhouse gases has become one of the most important factors affecting global warming which mainly on carbon dioxide.It has become the consensus of the world to reduce carbon emissions and develop the low-carbon economy.The Chinese government promised in Copenhagen meeting in 2009 that the intensity of carbon emissions fell by40%-45% from 2005 by 2020.Not only is Jiangsu one of fastest economic growing province in China,but also the major province of carbon emissions,which has the major responsibility in carbon emissions reduction.The urgent problem for Jiangsu Province is how to reduce carbon emissions under the premise of ensuring economic growth.This paper uses the adjustment of industrial structure,carbon emission and industrial structure theory to analyze the relationship between carbon emissions in Jiangsu province and the industrial structure adjustment of Jiangsu province.Combine the carbon accounting methods provided by IPCC assessment report to measure the total carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2015 and the carbon emissions of every industry departments.Then make the respectively comparison between the overall emissions,industrial structure,energy structure from carbon and the transverse to analyze the current situation of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province.Analyze the impact of industrial structure on carbon emissions based on the carbon emissions and the three related indicators,using the time series data,through the Granger causality test,co integration equation and VAR equation.On the basis of the results combine the actual operation of Jiangsu province with the economic development and environmental quality to build the multi-objective input-output optimization model.And gather the latest 30 department input-output tables and statistical yearbook data of Jiangsu Province to solve the model.This paper focuses on the simulation of the structural adjustment potential and industrial structure adjustment of Jiangsu Province in 2020.This paper comes to the following conclusions: Firstly,in the industrial structure,Jiangsu has formed a "231" industry pattern.In the carbon emissions,Jiangsu's second industry carbon emissions account for an absolute proportion and energy consumption is still dominated by coal.The province's carbon emission intensity is decreasing year by year,which is lower than the national average.At the same time,the per capitacarbon emissions are higher than the national average.Secondly,the low carbon adjustment of the internal structure of the three industries is conducive to reducing carbon emissions,and the energy efficiency of the three industries needs to be improved at the same time.Thirdly,the evolution of industrial structure in Jiangsu province is the Granger cause of regional carbon emissions growth.On the contrary,the change of carbon emissions is only the Granger reason of the change of third industry output value.In the short term,the development of the first industry and the third industry will reduce carbon emissions,and the development of the second industry will increase carbon emissions.In the long run,the first industrial output in Jiangsu Province,the proportion of changes on carbon emissions effect is negative;the second and the third industry output value proportion changes on carbon emissions effect is positive,and the positive effect is higher than the third industry second industry.Fourthly,the structural adjustment of Jiangsu province must make accurate orientation to all kinds of industries,while take leading industries as the guidance.Through the multi-objective input-output optimization model,this paper found that the 14 industries which need to pay attention to in Jiangsu province have obvious driving effect on regional economic growth.At the same time,the industrial structure optimization of Jiangsu province will show the trend of "softening".