The Effect Of Oil Price, Carbon Tax And Financial Crisis On Carbon Emissions In China

There are many factors influencing carbon emissions. The complex relationship among carbon emissions, economy and energy consumption is very important. Taking into account the volatility of oil prices, the inevitability of carbon tax and the uncertainty of international economy, this paper, using evolutionary game theory and empirical mode decomposition method, analyzes the impacts of oil prices, carbon tax and the economic crisis on China’s carbon emissions from the micro and macro perspective.At the micro perspective, evolutionary game theory is used to analyze how corporates make decisions between investing in low-carbon technologies and replacing energy when facing the rising oil prices. Then on the basis of this analysis, the impact of rising oil prices on China’s carbon emissions can be concluded. The results showed that when oil prices are rising, corporate groups can be both evolved to the direction of investment in low-carbon technologies, thereby inhibiting the increase in carbon emissions, and also possibly repalce energy which can save the costs but can increase more carbon emissions energy evolution, thus contributing to the increase in carbon emissions. This uncertain investment behavior is determined by the rise in oil prices, the business strategy of cost avoidance and revenue considerations. Therefore, the government in the development of low-carbon policy should focus on reducing the cost of investing in low-carbon technologies to reduce the risks and uncertainties of enterprises to develop low-carbon projects.At the micro perspective, on the assumption that companies can produce high-carbon and low-carbon products, the impact of the carbon tax on the production behavior is analyzed through evolutionary game theory. The results showed that carbon tax does not necessarily reduce carbon emissions, and is not necessarily able to achieve a low-carbon economy and solve the climate problem. The role of carbon tax is determined by the characteristics of the carbon emissions of enterprise clusters, consumer preference for low-carbon products, the way of taxation. The blind taxation may not only increase the burden of enterprises, but also can not reach emission reduction targets. A different form of levy used by the government will have different effects on different types of enterprises. If consumers do not prefer low-carbon products, all businesses eventually evolve into the production of high-carbon products, and thus carbon tax can not effectively play.At the macro perspective, China’s carbon emissions growth rate is decomposed into low frequency mode and the trend by empirical mode decomposition method. In the short term, the2008bailout plan just makes the magnitude of the decline in the growth rate of carbon emissions becomes smaller. Low-frequency mode and trend term in1998and2008has a local inflection point. The low-frequency mode, compared to the trends, reacts more severely. Finally, according to the analysis of the current domestic and international economic and political environment, the future carbon emissions growth rate will be predicted.