Research On County-level Power Grid Risk Assessment Early Warning And Risk Prevention And Control Management

With the development of market economy,the reliability of the security of power grid is increasing.With the development level of regional economy,the scale and interconnectedness of county-level power grid as the terminal distribution mechanism of power grid are also developing.The statistics find that the power failure caused by the poor communication between the county grid and the municipal power grid poses a great threat to the stability of the grid.Now in the face of the complex power grid,more and more potential risks,project risk is more and more complex and the stability of the traditional control theory and method on the dispatching operation has been unable to meet the demand of the safety of power grid stability.At present,risk assessment and prevention and control research have gained wide attention at home and abroad.With the research of experts and scholars on risk assessment and prevention and control theory,it is becoming more and more mature to apply it to the stable operation of power grid.Therefore,it is imperative to study the warning and control system of network operation risk assessment for county companies.The evaluation of risk assessment in power system has practical significance for the safety evaluation of power grid and effective prevention and control measures in power grid failure.Network operation risk is the biggest risk ice storm thunderstorm and other natural disasters.The rapid increase of the weak power load caused by the rapid growth of the network frame structure caused by heavy equipment maintenance is a great threat to the power grid.Therefore,it is of great significance to establish a reasonable risk warning mechanism for power grid operation and control and management system to ensure the safety of power grid operation and prevent the occurrence of power failure.In this context,this paper mainly studies the basic model of grid risk assessment,and establishes the warning and risk control system of risk assessment of county-level power grid,at the same time,the effectiveness of the study is verified by practical working examples.The basic contents are as follows:(1)Safety assessment method for grid systemTwo common security assessment methods of power grid system are introduced,which are Analytic method and Monte Carlo method respectively.By comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the two methods,the two methods complement each other.Therefore,a new method for evaluating the advantages of the two methods is introduced,and the method of non-sequential Monte Carlo improvement is introduced.It not only optimizes the calculation efficiency of risk assessment,but also greatly improves the convergence speed.(2)The Basic model of grid risk assessmentA simple classification of grid risk is carried out.In this paper,the three state weather models are listed for the risk of the special weather.A risk assessment model based on line overload is presented based on line overload caused by tidal current distribution.The risk assessment model of chain failure is listed in this paper.The risk tracking model based on the failure component is presented for the impact of failure component on the overall operation risk of the system.This evaluation models have laid the theoretical foundation for the establishment of the risk assessment early warning and risk prevention and control system.(3)Establishment of county grid risk assessment early warning and risk prevention and control management system based on EMS system and OMS system.The system is implemented and applied in the dispatching work.In combination with the EMS system of daily use,the system is analyzed through the key nodes,the whole process is controlled,and the network risk flow management of the system is formed to facilitate the operation personnel to fully grasp the change trend of the network risk,improve the ability of regulators to risk perception,and thus to drive and increase the risk of other related production department response ability,reduce or avoid risk caused by the loss.Finally,the effectiveness of this study is verified by the example of risk assessment and risk control.