| Indonesia is an agricultural country with rich resources, the sources of natural resources production has great potential, especially in the agricultural sector, which is the backbone of economic development. Sub-sectors of agriculture plays a very important role in economic development especially the plantation sector. Agriculture plays a vital role to increase import and export of Indonesia and open global trade growth.Coffee is one of Indonesia’s agriculture cash crop, on agricultural development has an important contribution, coffee after there is palm oil and rubber which is the third largest source of foreign exchange, and can provide employment opportunities for the residents.So far, Indonesia’s coffee production ranks third, after Brazil and Vietnam. Indonesia’s coffee production each year has an average of about 600 tons. According to statistics, the coffee produce in Indonesia provides 7% of global coffee demand. Indonesia’s coffee-growing area of 1.3 million hectares, which means that Indonesia’s coffee plantations is the largest in the world. From 1.3 million hectares of plantations, the total area of plantations in Indonesia 82 percent dominated by the Robusta Coffee, accounting for 18% of the total area of Arabica Coffee.96% of Indonesia’s coffee produce by small scale farmers, only 4% of the produce by the large plantations. Indonesia’s total coffee export value reached $ 1.6 billion. A total of 50 Indonesian coffee destination countries, most notably is the United States, Japan, Germany, Italy. Indonesia’s location is suitable for operating coffee plantations, the climate for the growth of Indonesia’s coffee plants are ideal, which is conducive for the development of coffee.Indonesia has an important strategic position in the world coffee trade. In 2008-2012, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam are the world’s third largest coffee producer and exporter (Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics,2012). The main destination of Indonesia’s coffee exports are the United States, the European Union (mainly Germany, Italy, UK) and Asian countries (mainly Japan, Malaysia, Singapore). According to the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association, more than 50 percent of Indonesia’s coffee export markets distributed in the above three areas.This shows that Indonesia’s coffee exports have a crucial role in the trade to these three areas for it is a source of foreign exchange in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the situation of 2000 to 2013 coffee production area, production and exports;to analyze from 2000 to 2013 the Indonesian coffee exports to six destination countries (United States, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore) in terms of price, volume exports situation; and to analyze what factors affect Indonesia’s coffee export volume to these six destination countries.In this study, the author through descriptive analysis by using tabulation, charts and diagrams of 2000 to 2013 to analyze Indonesian coffee production area, production, coffee exports and Indonesian coffee exports to six destination country (United States, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore).The impact of various factors on Indonesian coffee export volume through references on empirical research, the author use Stata 12 software for processing panel data, multiple linear regression model, by comparison chart analysis, to analyze what factors will affect the exports of Indonesian coffee.This study consist three analysis. Firstly, during 2000 to 2013 what factors affect Indonesia’s coffee exports volume to six destination countries (United States, Germany, Japan, Italy, Malaysia, Singapore). Second, during the period from 2000 to 2007(before the world economic crisis) what factors affect Indonesia’s export volume to six destination countries. Third, during 2008 to 2013 (after the world economic crisis), which factors affect Indonesia’s export volume of coffee exports to six countries of destination, and compare the result of two model regression. Finally, conclude what factors will affect the exports of Indonesian coffee, and make some comments or measures, in order to achieve better development of Indonesia’s coffee exports.Source of this research auxiliary data is by national and international institutions also other official sites related to the study. Indonesia’s official institution including the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Bank Indonesia, the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association (AEKI), Indonesia’s Planting Official Website. Official international institutions including the International Coffee Organization (International Coffee Organization), World Bank, the United Nations Statistics Division official website.There are a lot of researches related to coffee exports, but only study of one importing country. This paper analyzes the impact of various factors on six importing countries to Indonesian coffee volume exports. This paper also analyze the variation in coffee exports volume before and after the global crisis. This is the author’s innovation point in this paper.Results of this study show that:First, during 2000 and 2013 the coffee area plantation and Indonesian coffee export volume fluctuates from year to year, but the average annual tends to increase; Indonesian coffee production fluctuates from year to year, but the average annual growth rate is negative, indicating average annual of production tends to decrease. Second, the period between 2000 and 2013 Indonesian coffee exports to six destination countries, namely the United States, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore from year to year fluctuations. Indonesia’s average annual shows the growth rate of coffee export volume to United States, Germany, Italy, Malaysia is positive, indicating average annual of coffee export volume tends to increase; but the Indonesian coffee export volume to the average annual growth rates of Japan and Singapore is negative, indicating average annual of Indonesian coffee export volume tends to decrease. Third, during the period 2000 to 2013, the country’s real GDP per capita of importing country, Indonesia’s exports to the country of destination of the previous year, Indonesia’s coffee volume production has a positive and significant impact on Indonesian coffee exports volume; during the period 2000 to 2013 Indonesian coffee consumption per capita has negative impact on volume of exports; and the other independent variables were not significant;Fourth, before the world economic crisis (2000 to 2007) real GDP per capita of the importing country, the exchange rate of the rupiah, the Indonesian production has a positive and significant impact on volume exports; between 2000 and 2007 the Indonesian coffee consumption per capita has negative impact on exports; the price of Indonesian coffee export to importing countries and the precious year of Indonesian coffee exports volume on Indonesia’s coffee exports volume were not significant; Fifth, the period from 2009 to 2013 (after the world economic crisis) real GDP per capita of the importing countries and Indonesian volume coffee production has a positive and significant impact on exports. Other independent variables were not significant on Indonesian exports volume. |
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