Research Of Delay Propagation Mechanism And Flight Delays Analysis

With the rapid development of our aviation industry,the future growth of air traffic volumes rapidly. However,the conflict between the increasing demand of air transportation and the decreasing supply of our national airspace became sharper along with the development,which,a wide range of the airspace congestion and large-area flight delays and other related issues are also increasingly highlighted. These problems not only bring to the aviation transportation safe hidden trouble, and lowered the efficiency of air transport system, and large delays may cause huge economic losses. Therefore,through a research into the cause of delays and its transmission mechanism, rapid, efficient, it is imperative to solve the problem of flight delays. Study the theory of flight delay propagation and the problems which caused by the flight delay propagation can be effectively predicted, reduce the loss caused by flight delay propagation, reduce its consequences and effects, the effective disposal of related problems caused by flight delays and its propagation play an important role.The essay states the current status of studying on the flight delay both national and overboard,puts the previous study conclusion into a summary;in order to focus on our own flaw in the aspects of statistics in analysis of delays,I've summarized numbers of foreign mature statistical methods,and proposed possible strategies of recover the delayed flights. In terms of the possible effects,I have also proposed an model that indicates the flight delay effect range,based on the time line. From the angle of events,I made structural analysis towards the flight delays,and summarized the characters and forms of the deriving events,analyzed the affecting pattern in the chain of events caused by flight delay. In the aspect of airport network,based on the analysis on the historical statistics,from the angles of the time and space spreading characters,I have analyzed the relativity of the departing and approaching of airport delay and also the spread of delays with different airports. At the end,I have built an airport network,and run the simulation of the impact and effect of flight delay,with the Anylogic simulation software. I have also analyzed the macrographical effect of the flight delay within the network of airports. By simulating the flight working pattern,accessing the actual flight working time,therefore get the departing and approaching delay time and the changing tendency statistics,so that discussed the effecting range and spreading pattern of the flight delay in the airport network.