Research On The Chain Effect Of Flight Delay Secondary And Derivative Emergency Events Based On Aviation Network

In recent years, with the rapid development of civil aviation, the air traffic flow of our country has become increasingly serious, and that comes with many events that impact on the efficiency of aviation operation, such as tight airspace resource and dense flight plan. At the same time, flight delay has become more apparent. Some airline will sequentially arrange the same plane to carry out many flight tasks. Hence, there exist some associations among numerous flights. As the high density of flight schedules, mass flight delay events emerge in endlessly, which cause that a single flight delay will spread to its subsequent flights through the association of flight chain. The scope of delay propagation involves all of flights in the flight chain, and even the other flights in the destination airports of subsequent flights. Then, a series of secondary and derivative emergency events triggered by flight delay will take place and form a kind of multi-level emergency event chain. Therefore, mass flight delay has brought great hardship to subsequent flight operations and allocations of airports and air traffic managements, as well as become a prominent issue affecting the safety and interest of airports, airlines and passengers.Aimed at the comprehensive analysis of flight delay and its propagation, the chain propagation effect of flight delay and its secondary and derivative emergency events is discussed based on aviation transport network. The improved flight delay propagation model is built by subdividing flight delay propagation process. Sequentially, a series of secondary and derivative emergency event chains of subsequent flights and subsequent airports triggered by flight delay and its propagation are analyzed, which form the chain network of flight delay and its secondary and derivative emergency events. Moreover, on the basic of secondary and derivative emergency event chain effect rules, the chain effect mechanism of secondary and derivative emergency events of flight delay is described. Besides, aviation transport network is established. Based on simulation software Anylogic, the spread and diffusion process of flight delay and its secondary and derivative emergency events chain effect is simulated for analyzing influence degree of flight delay to other flights. It not only contributes to aviation emergency management preventing and handling flight delay secondary and derivative emergency events, but also effectively reduces consequences and losses of flight delay and its secondary and derivative emergency events.