Research On The Construction Of E-commerce Logistics Delay Propagation Model And Delay Propagation Effect

At the same time of the rapid growth of e-commerce in China,the complaints about logistics delays of online shopping users are also increasing year by year.In-depth analysis of the reasons found that the current solution to logistics delays is emergency and heap-based emergency solutions.It has not adapted to the current situation of e-commerce logistics parcels normalization and sea quantification.It is necessary to deeply understand e-commerce logistics and analyze and formulate precise measures on the basis of mastering scientific laws.In this context,it is imperative to study the influencing factors,propagation models and their propagation effects of e-commerce logistics delays.The research content of this paper mainly includes:(1)Collect e-commerce logistics delay data of well-known express delivery companies in China,and analyze the characteristics and classification of the influencing factors that cause e-commerce logistics delays.(2)Construct a delay propagation model between e-commerce logistics continuous delays.Take the e-commerce logistics initial delay time and adjacent delay time as random variables,and construct the Copula model of continuous delay of e-commerce logistics,and then analyze the delay propagation effect of the initial delay of e-commerce logistics on its downstream adjacent nodes.(3)Analysis the propagation effects of e-commerce logistics delays caused by enterprise factors throughout the process.In this paper,the initial delay time,the number of downstream delay nodes and the total delay time are selected as the characteristic variables,and use Copula function to construct the joint distribution among these three random variables.Then analyze the influence of different initial delay time on the propagation of the number of downstream delay nodes and the total delay time.Construct a delay propagation model between initial delay and total delay(after replacement of priority logistics business),and then analyze the impact of change logistics business on delay propagation effect.(4)E-commerce logistics delay control measures.This paper gives some suggestions for controlling the spread of e-commerce logistics delays from the perspective of enterprises.The conclusions of this paper mainly include:(1)E-commerce logistics initial delay and adjacent delay have tail correlation,the e-commerce logistics initial delay extreme value will have 90% may spread to downstream neighbors.However,the delay time of the initial delay caused by the customer factor to the downstream neighboring nodes has an increasing trend,the delay time of the initial delay caused by the enterprise factor to the downstream neighboring nodes has a decreasing trend.(2)The length of the initial delay caused by the enterprise factor has less influence on the number of downstream delay nodes,but has a greater positive impact on the total delay.The initial delay time of different intervals has different effects on total delay,when the initial delay time is less than 98 hours,the delay effect is mainly transmitted;when the initial delay time is greater than or equal to 98 hours,and the delay effect is mainly absorbed.(3)On the basis of fully understanding the factors causing e-commerce logistics delay,this paper proposes to improve the reliability of operators and the reliability of operating equipment,which can effectively reduce the probability of e-commerce logistics delays;on the basis of fully understanding the characteristics of e-commerce logistics delay propagation,This paper proposes a reasonable scheduling of logistics operations priorities,which can effectively reduce delay propagation.