An Empirical Research On The Carbon Emissions Peak Value Of China’s Aviation Industry

On July 8, 2008, the EU passed a unilateral bill of putting aviation industry into the EU Emissions Trading System(ETS). Although the bill was opposed by many countries and airlines and was stranded because of the suspicion of setting up green trade barriers and infringement of sovereignty, other countries have accelerated the pace on carbon reduction.On the other hand, the Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Plan of Aviation Industry issued in 2011 by Civil Aviation Administration of China proposed "quantitative requirement" on the main objectives of energy saving and carbon reduction: by 2015 China’s civil aviation energy consumption and emissions per unit of output should fall 15% compared to the counterpart in2005. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is putting forward reasonable forecast of the peak value of China’s aviation industry carbon emissions, establishing the position of carbon reduction, and proposing specific measures of mitigation scheme.Firstly according to the previous literature on peak value of carbon emissions and traffic forecasting, the affecting factors of carbon emission of aviation industry of China are conducted, which include total turnover and fuel efficiency. Secondly the ARDL models including GDP per capita and population are built for total air traffic turnover and turnover of international air traffic. For fuel efficiency three scenarios assumptions are set up on technology efficiency, operating efficiency and biofuel based on relevant literature. Thirdly only in ambitious scenario there is peak point of carbon emission for total air traffic and international air traffic. Specifically, the overall carbon emissions peak value of the air transport industry is 164.55 million tons in 2049,for the international part the peak value is40.13 million tons in 2039.Finally in accordance with the international aviation emissions peak in case of ambitious scenario, and the comparative analysis with the recent developments of international air traffic of USA, the situation of civil aviation carbon emissions of China is serious, and various reduction measures should be adopted in different levels to achieve carbon reduction goal.