Research On The Impact Of The Scale Of China’s Carbon Trading Market On Carbon Emissions

As the process of global climate governance continues to advance,China has set carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,showing great determination to control greenhouse gas emissions.The construction of a national carbon emission trading market(referred to as carbon trading market)is an institutional innovation that uses market mechanisms to control greenhouse gas emissions and promote low-carbon development.It is also an important policy tool to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.However,there is still a big gap between the scale of the national carbon trading market and the international market.In order to ensure the emission reduction effect of the carbon trading market,it is necessary to deeply explore the impact of the scale of the carbon trading market on carbon emissions.Based on the data of 30 provinces from 2005 to 2019,this paper uses the progressive double-difference model to evaluate the emission reduction effect of the scale of the carbon trading market,and uses the STIRPAT expansion model to predict China’s carbon emission level from 2021 to 2060,to discuss the impact of carbon trading market size on the carbon peak path.The main findings are as follows:(1)The expansion of the carbon trading market can effectively reduce the carbon emission intensity of the pilot areas and industries.Every 1% increase in the quota trading volume and transaction value will correspondingly reduce the carbon emission intensity of the pilot areas by 1.8% and 1.3%,reduce the carbon emission intensity of pilot industries by 2.9% and 2.1% respectively.The emission reduction effect of carbon trading market scale has regional heterogeneity and industry heterogeneity.(2)The scale of the carbon trading market can have an impact on the carbon peaking path,mainly by reducing the peaking and overall carbon emission levels.Under the two carbon peaking scenarios of planning and enhanced planning,the more active the carbon trading market is,the larger the carbon trading market size(trading volume)is,the lower the corresponding peaking and cumulative carbon emissions from 2021 to2060.(3)Under the enhanced planning scenario and the ideal carbon trading market state,the optimal carbon peaking path in different scenarios can be obtained,which can achieve the carbon peaking goal in 2030 ahead of time and the peaking value is the lowest.In the future,attention should be paid to the scale factor of the carbon trading market,and targeted measures should be taken,such as expanding the scale of the carbon trading market,expanding the scope of the trading industry,and improving supporting policies and systems,so as to promote the construction and improvement of the national carbon trading market.By studying the impact of the scale of the carbon trading market on the carbon emission level and carbon peak path,this paper quantifies the emission reduction effect after the actual operation of the carbon trading market,and evaluates the implementation effect of the carbon trading market policy comprehensively and scientifically.It provides theoretical basis and targeted development strategies for further promoting the development of the national carbon trading market.