Research On Atlas And Scenario Simulation Of Border Land Use Change

The research of land use / cover change is one of the hotspots of global change research, with the deepening of economic globalization and trade liberalization, the border land use with geographical advantage has been changed deeply. This paper takes GuangXi land border areas as case study, taking the TMs of 2003, 2008 and 2013 years as the data sources, taking the ARCGIS10.2, SPSS19.0 and Office as the software platform, taking statistics, land use change theory, geo info TUPU, geography as the theoretical basis of geography, using the dynamic degree mode, change of land use degree mode, information entropy and land use transfer matrix to analyze the land use information atlas, analyzing the spatial temporal evolution process, rules and characteristics of land use in different timing units and different timing scales systematically, analyzing the effect of the total border trade, import and export of border trade, total population at the end of the year to border land use change by correlation analysis method, and Constructing the driving factor system which is fit for border areas. On the foundation of the above, in order to provide reference for border use land scientific and territorial planning, the paper uses the composite model of Markov and CLUE-S to simulate the tempo—spatial land use change in 2020 year under the scenario of maintaining the current development trend and the border trade development in slow, medium, rapid speed.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)The land use patterns is mainly dominated by cultivated land and forest land in GuangXi land border areas, the proportion of cultivated land and forest land is more than 60%, which has an absolute advantage. It shows that cultivated land and forest land are the matrix landscape in border areas, it also can reflects that the border area is mainly based on agriculture and forestry, which is consistent with the actual social production activities in the border area. During 2003 to 2013 year, the area of cultivated land, forest land, water area and construction land increased continuously, however, the area of grass land and unused land decreased continuously.(2) In the pass 10 years, the transformation of different land use types in the border area is more complicated, the transfer of grass land, unused land, forest land and cultivated land has become the main theme of land use change, the most significant evolution process includes grass land→forest land, unused land→forest land and so on, these 15 transfer types account for the proportion of the total area of the land use change of the border as high as 97.57%. Overall, the rapid growth of population, the preferential policies of the border and the rapid development of the social economy driving the tempo—spatial land use change in GuangXi land border areas.(3) The stable pattern unit is the largest area of pattern change type, and it spreads the border area, the least proportion area is the constantly changing type. In the arising /declining atlas, the largest expanding atlas was forest land, and the obviously shrinking atlas was grass land and unused land, the stable atlas accounted for more than 80% of the total area, which is in an absolute dominant position.(4) The result of correlation analysis shows that the total border trade, export of border trade, revenue, total population at the end of the year and so on are the Main driving force to drive the tempo—spatial land use change in GuangXi land border areas.(5) The result of logistic regression shows that the area of 6 types under the ROC curve is more than 0.7, it can also show that the driving factor has a good reception to explain the land use change. On the foundation of the above, using CLUE-S model to simulate the land use change in 2013, and verifying the simulation accuracy, the result shows that Kappa index is 0.7930(>0.75), it can reflect these is a better simulation result.Under the scenario of maintaining the current development trend and the border trade development in slow, medium, rapid speed, simulating the land use change in 2020, under the 4 kinds of scenario, the area of cultivated land, forest land, water area and construction land increase continuously, however, the area of grass land and unused land decreased continuously.