Statistical Analysis Of Factors Affecting Price Fluctuations

The runaway surge of China's necessaries prices have been seen frequently in recent years. The skyrocketing prices tell heavily on people's daily life, and buzzwords like “‘tough' garlic”, and “‘Check' ginger” spring out as a reflection of the excessive high prices of daily goods. Thus, the stabilization of price links directly to the quality of public life and the development of China's economy.We select relevant data from 2001 to 2013 to find out the reason of rising prices in China in recent years. Firstly, CPI is selected as an indicator to evaluate the fluctuation of price after comparison and analysis study. In the third chapter, we give the statistical descriptive analysis about CPI and its eight indexes. According to the distribution of consumption obtained by systematical clustering and K-means clustering, the 32 provinces of China can be classified into 5 categories.Secondly, 10 indicators between January 2008 and December 2014 are chosen as factors that influence price fluctuation in the empirical analysis. At first, build a Multivariate statistical model to find each indicator's influence on price through statistic analysis. Then, build a VAR model to study each indicator's influence on price fluctuation through dynamic analysis. In this step, we can find that enterprise commodities' market price index and manufactures' factory price index contribute to price fluctuation more. Their max indexes even reach 27.16920 and 49.35786 in 10 lagging cycles, which indicate an extraordinary influence. Food price index also makes a comparatively big influence on CPI than others. The change of total retail sales index follows a relatively smooth curve, which shows that this indicator has a stable influence on CPI. Curves of total expo-import volume index and real estate price index are going up after down, and being steady eventually. Foreign exchange reserves index's influence on CPI is slightly weaken. The influence of food price index and currency supply index is nearly stable.At last, it gives reasonable suggestions to the result of this analysis. First, accelerate the revolution of distribution system and build up an adequate social security system. Second, enhance the monitor of food price and house price. Third, increase effective supply and decrease unreasonable demand in order to against the overgrowth of price. Forth, implement effective control on investment and expoimport scales.