Research On Rural Household Poverty Vulnerability In The South Of Xinjiang

Xinjiang has always been the focus of attention to poverty alleviation. The situation of southern area of rural residents of poverty alleviation and development difficulties and returning phenomenon serious has seriously hindered the Xinjiang current across the pace of development. From vulnerability a forward-looking perspective, this study focuses on the contemporary phenomenon of rural households re-poverty in southern Xinjiang, systematically studies the vulnerability of poverty of rural households. And with the common characteristics of Moyu County and Shache County in 2013 and 2014 household survey data as the basis, this study reflects the main causes of returning to poverty and the common characteristics of influence factors in the current southern Xinjiang region, which could provide some suggestions for the poverty alleviation and development in this area. To achieve this goal, this paper firstly combing and integrating with the connotation of poverty vulnerability theory, building and perfecting the methods of measuring the poverty vulnerability, and determining the main parameters during the process of measuring and theoretical thinking;Secondly, completed the calculation of poverty vulnerability of rural households in these county. With scientific reason and the local reality, this study determines the vulnerability of Xinjiang related indicators, the future distribution estimation method, the optimal combination of the poverty line and fragile line. And using the three stage least square method to complete measure of poverty vulnerability and analyzing the whole change trend and causes of these rural families; Again, analyzing the influencing factors, respectively by using the random effects model, super efficiency DEA model and clustering analysis, to study the quantitative indicators of the importance of the factors affecting the improvement path, which provides the basis for forward-looking poverty reduction policy.In the measurement and analysis of the vulnerability of the poor, this study grasps the income and consumption data of each family, and makes a flexible use of a variety of methods to explore.Also due to resist risk ability is weak, this weak ability is leading to vulnerability instead of the real poverty. On the other hand, the family poverty vulnerability fluctuates significantly and the conversion of high vulnerability and low vulnerability is frequently. The improvement and deterioration of vulnerability is coexistent there and overall showing a trend towards high vulnerability.In the analysis of the influence factors of poverty vulnerability, we find that different influence factors of family poverty vulnerability has the opposite effect. And we should focus on reducing the proportion of the first industry population, timely promoting the different education levels of family. While household consumption in the quantitative view can be moderately improved about 1000 yuan to 2000 yuan, transfer of subsidies for each family can moderately improve the 20 yuan to 50 yuan. And it is needed to raise the awareness of the residents’ families to take the initiative to receive education as well as to ensure that the local has certain educational resources and facilities. Comprehensive analysis shows that the improvement of livelihood capital and social capital is based on building a harmonious and stable external social and economic environment. And we should develop the social capital as the dominant and livelihood capital as the support to the policy of poverty alleviation.