Big Data.Predictive Study Of The 2016 U.S.Election

In the information society people eulogize the social progress and convenience of life brought by technology.But they often cannot be aware of or pay little attention to the hidden dangers.Therefore,the worship of technology has gradually become a common idea in society.However,technology is a double-edged sword.In the book"Technopoly",Postman explores the possible social problems and thinking patterns from technology development to the era of monopoly culture with the perspective of humanistic concern.He hopes to remove the cognitive way that we are unconsciously deifying technology in our mind.And on the premise of acknowledging the enormous contribution made by technology to social progress,he warn us should not ignore the negative effects like information flooding,skills weakening,traditional symbols and so on that accompanied by technology.In the media industry,while big data technology brings good news for the development of the industry,it does have some negative impacts as well.It is worth our attention and reflection.The combination of big data and news is an inevitable trend of the development of the times.And the predictive power of big data is in line with the requirements of predictive reporting.Under the continuous deepening of data news practice,the media industry generally believes that big data predictive reporting will be one of the major trends in news development.On the one hand,the "full sample" model of big data allows the error to be reduced as much as possible,the related thinking method provides a new way of thinking.Forecasting by data analysis is considered more objective and scientific.On the other hand,data news bas gradually become mature through the massive practice in recent years.The establishment of the 2012 Data Journalism Awards has established that the data news has become independent as one of the report types.News content has developed from simple presentation of data and information gradually to continuous predictive analysis.Both in terms of function and value,it has improved.From the object of the report,major international events often become frequent visitors of the data news.Due to the special political environment of Western countries,in recent years,while mainstream media reports about election campaigns,they will choose to use the form of data news topics to focus on reporting.As a major global political event,the 2016 U.S.election process has become the focus of media coverage in various countries.Its long-standing and large-scale characteristics make predictive reporting of big data work well.The mainstream media also use the latest technology to present the progress of the general election in all aspects to predict who will become the next president of the United States.But when the media prepared the trophy to Hillary Clinton,Trump unexpectedly won,which shock the whole world.This forecast of loss reveals the deficiencies of the big data forecast,and reflects the possible negative effects of overuse of technology in news reports.This article will conduct a detailed study of the election report and put the report of 538 Web site,which is known for its data forecasting,as a typical case to analysis.Under the perspective of the Boltzmann theory of technopoly,this paper explores the possible technical worship and digital trap behind the failure of this forecast,puts forward a new prospect for the future development of predictive reporting of big data,and considers issues that need attention and avoidance in the development of domestic data news.The core of this article has the following sections:The introductioin part of the author introduces the background,issues,significance,purposes of the research,literature review and research methods.The first chapter and the second chapter is the background of the article,introduces the relevant theory and background.In the first chapter,the author elaborates the theoretical perspective of this paper.This chapter analyzes the theory of technopoly from three aspects as the stage of technological evolution,monopoly of technology criticism and technology may resist.After that,this paper analyzes and evaluates the practical significance of the theory.The second chapter the author briefly introduces the meaning,development process and characteristics of predictive reporting.Then analyze the advanced barriers and prospect for the development of predictive reporting.The third and fourth chapters are the case presentation and analysis of the article,which presents the overall forecasting process of big data in the 2016 US general election and analyzes the traces of the technology monopoly in the report using the 538 website as a case study.In the third chapter,the author firstly explains the reasons for choosing the coverage of the 2016 U.S.presidential election,describes the overall coverage by the American media.Then,take the coverage of the 538 website as a typical case for analyzing and then explore the existence of traces of technopoly in this report.The fourth chapter analyzes the big data forecasting of 538 websites under the theoretical perspective of Postman's technopoly.The author criticizes the problems and demonstrates the characteristics of the technopoly in the coverage of the general election from three aspects,which are the algorithmic dependence and data trust in computer technology,the hidden "trap" in opinion polls and the data chart flooding.The fifth chapter is the reflection and enlightenment of the case analysis summary and thinking.Firstly summarize the easily overlooked issues in big data prediction process.Secondly explore the scope and ethical issues of big data predition.Finally,it tries to make a guide to the development of domestic data and news from two aspects of innovative thinking and humanistic feelings.When using technology,we should always watch out for the hazards that technology can bring at the same time.In conclusion,the author explains the value and significance of the research on predictive reporting of big data from the perspective of technopoly.At the same time,it sums up many shortcomings of the research and puts forward ideas and prospects for future research.