Research On The Flight Delay Propagation In Aviation Network Under Uncertainty Factor

The problem of flight delay is becoming more and more serious in our country.From the view of actual civil aviation operation,an aircraft performs several flight tasks continuously.Not only in the initial phase,the whole process of flight operation may be subject to uncertainty factors.Once uncertainty factors bring about flight delays,a series of factors be conducted and resulting in more serious delays.The correlation between flights and the increasing saturation of airspace and airport capacity make it difficult for delays to be absorbed.Therefore,the flight delays caused by uncertain factors not only directly affect the operation order and the safety of flights and airports,but also affect the spread of flight delays to the associated airports or even non-associated airports.And the delays causes a large range of flight delays,the operation of civil aviation safety and social stability and harmony caused a very bad influence.Based on safety flight operation mechanism,this paper analyzes the effects of flight delay on the diffusion of the air transport network based on the uncertain factors.First of all,the paper explores the flight operation mechanism of the air transport network,and excavates the various uncertain factors which lead to the flight delay.It combines these uncertain factors with the flight operation mechanism to analyze uncertainty factors which may be conducted in all periods of flight operation.Secondly,combining with airport operation mechanism,this paper analyzes the process and the influence of uncertain factors on all kinds of flight,and constructs the colored-time petri net model which can describe the process of flight delay propagation.Simulation result shows the model is reasonable.Finally,combined with multi-airport operation mechanism,this paper analyzes the influence of uncertain factors on continuous flights,and studies the longitudinal effect of flight delays on flight chain.Combined with above airport petri net model which can describe the influence of air transport network uncertainties on the whole process of flight delay propagation is proposed,and the delay calculation model is put forward.Corresponding simulation is given to verify the model.Through scientific analysis the influence of uncertainty factors on to reasonably predict the resources and time consumption.Flight scheduling is scheduled methodically and delays disposal measures are made rationally,so as to achieve flight delays early warning and improve the flight delay recovery efficiency.