| Aging of the population means that as the fertility rate declines and life expectancy increases,the proportion of the aging population in the total population of the society keeps growing and the population of young people decreases.With the development of society and the change of population structure,varying levels of aging have been found in most countries and regions.According to the general standards of the United Nations,China stepped into an aging society in 2000.As of 2016,China’s population aged 60 and above accounts for 16.7%of the total population and population aged 65 and above accounts for 10.8%of the total population.Aging of population will have a profound socio-economic impact.With the changes in the demographic structure,China’s "demographic dividend" has gradually disappeared and it is quite difficult to sustain the labor advantages.The growth space for labor-intensive industries continue to shrink while economy develops to the level of growth shifts and industrial upgrading.At the same time,the Party’s 18th National Congress clearly stated that China must implement an innovation-driven strategy,which is to use technological innovation to promote China’s economic development,making inno,vation a new engine of economic growth.Against the above background,what kind of impacts will aging have on the optimization of industrial structure?What role will innovation play in this process?This is the main issue of this paper.This paper theoretically analyzes how aging and innovation have caused changes in the factors affecting the industrial structure,and shows how the aging population influences the optimization of the industrial structure and how innovation affects the relationship between aging and the industrial structure optimization.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities across the country from 2007 to 2016,this paper uses the fixed effect model and the random effect model to empirically analyze the relationship between aging and industrial structure optimization.And the moderation model is used to introduce innovation into empirical analysis to study the moderating effect of innovation on the relationship between aging and industrial structure optimization.The optimization of industrial structure includes the rationalization of industrial structure and industrial structure advancement.The empirical results show that the relationship between population aging and the rationalization of industrial structure is inverted U-shaped,and the relationship between aging and industrial structure advancement is also inverted U-shaped.Innovation can significantly expand the role of aging in promoting the rationalization of industrial structure and weaken its negative impact.However,the adjustment effect of innovation is not very significant in the process of aging that affects industrial structure advancement.When further analysis is conducted in different regions,it is found that there are regional differences in the above-mentioned impact relations and regulatory effects in the eastern,central and western regions. |
