The Study Of Spatiotemporal Distribution Of Mumps In Shandong Province And The Impact Of Climate Factors On Mumps

Mumps remains a serious public health problem,it has posed a notable threat to public health and became a public health priority in China.Several studies showed that the spatial distribution of mumps was nonrandom and clustered.The world now is facing the global climate change and this surely enhances the spreading of the infectious diseases and viral.It is quite vital to acquire the characteristics of mumps in spatial and temporal domains.In the context of global climate change,the distribution of infectious diseases and viral diseases is likely to change as meteorological factors change greatly.Climate variability can be related to the health outcomes.To further understand the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps will contribute to the improvement of prevention and prediction of disease.From 2005 to 2014,we collected mumps cases in Shandong Province.We conducted a descriptive analysis to depict the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Shandong Province.The spatial autocorrelation and space-time scan analysis were utilized to detect spatial-temporal clusters of mumps.The daily data of meteorological variables and mumps from 2009 to 2013 were obtained from Jining.A generalized additive model was used to quantify the association between meteorological factors and mumps based on the exposure-response relationship.Our results provide facts for the setting of preventive and control measures.The main results from this study:1.From 2005 to 2014;a total of 115745 mumps cases were reported in Shandong Province,including 39312 women and 76433 men.The average male-to-female sex ratio was 1.94,children aged 5 to 9 were the majority which accounted for 40.79%(47215 cases)of all reported cases.Mumps occurred mostly in spring,which accounted for 32.17%(37231 cases)of all reported cases,but could happen any time of the year.2.The Moran's I test was significant and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation(LISA)analysis revealed significant spatial clusters with high incidence of mumps.The purely spatial scan statistics and space-time analysis also discovered several high incidence clusters of mumps.The results showed that the middle-west of Shandong and some coastal regions(Qingdao City and Weihai City)were high risk areas,especially in the centre of the Jining City and the junction of Dongying City,Binzhou City and Zibo City.3.A total of 8520 mumps cases were included in Jining city.We found a nonlinear relationship of daily mean temperature,sunshine duration and relative humidity with mumps,with an approximately linear association for mean temperature above 4?(excess risk(ER)for 1? increase was 2.72%,95%confidence interval(CI):2.38%,3.05%on the current day),for relative humidity above 54%,the ER for 1%increase was-1.86%(95%CI:-2.06%,-1.65%)at lag day 14;and for sunshine duration higher than 5h/d,the ER for per lh/d increase was 12.91%(95%Cl:11.38%,14.47%)at lag day 1.While we found linear effects for daily wind speed(ER:2.98%,95%CI:2.71%,3.26%at lag day 13).Conclusions:1.The number of cases was more men than women.Kids aged 5 to 9 were the majority.Mumps occurred mostly in spring.2.We demonstrated evidence for the existence of statistically significant mumps clusters in Shandong Province,China.The results showed that the middle-west of Shandong and some coastal regions(Qingdao City and Weihai City)were high risk areas,especially in the centre of the Jining City and the junction of Dongying City,Binzhou City and Zibo City.3.The incidence of mumps has obvious seasonal characteristics and meteorological factors in Jining are related to mumps.We found a nonlinear relationship of daily mean temperature,sunshine duration and relative humidity with mumps and linear effects for daily wind speed.For temperature,4? was a cut-point,it was suggested that the thresholds of relative humidity and sunshine duration were 54%and 5h/d,respectively.A statistical significant positive association between temperature and mumps occurrence was observed(at the lag days 0-14).A significant negative effect was observed for relative humidity across the lag days of 0-19.While the positive effects of wind speed and sunshine duration were found to be largest at lag day 13 and lag day 1.