| Objective: Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious diseases caused by influenza virus, which spreads by droplets and direct contact with infected people. Due to its rapid mutation, strong transmissibilityer, high morbidity and mortality, influenza is one of the infectious diesases with greatest threat to human health. This study aimed to explore the relationship between the meteorological factors and the risk of Influenza-like disease in children under 15 years old in Jingzhou, and to provide scientific basis for the influenza prevention and control in Jingzhou city.Methods: This study was based on the data of daily report cases of influenza monitoring in four influenza surveillance sentinel hospital in Jingzhou from May 1, 2010 to April 30, 2012, and the data about meteorological factors in the same period. The generalized additive model based on poisson distribution was used to explore the lag effect and the threshold effect of meteorological factors on the risk of Influenza-like disease everyday in children under 15 years old in Jingzhou city.Results: 1.The peaks of the daily report number of Influenza-like disease in children under 15 years old in Jingzhou was from October to December and from February to April, influenza-like cases are more likely to outbreak in winter and spring.2.The Spearman correlation coefficients between sunshine hours and rainfall, daily average temperature, daily average moisture, daily average air pressure were-0.534, 0.392,-0.437,-0.253, and had statistics significance(P<0.05).3.The effect of daily average temperature on the risk of Influenza-like diseaseThe risk of Influenza-like disease caused by daily average temperature was lowest with relative risk 0.766(95%CI:0.648-0.905) when lagging for 7 days for children under 15 years old. And 1? rise of daily average temperature would lead to 1.3% reduction of the risk of influenza-like disease(P<0.001). When the temperature was below 26.1?, 1? rise of daily average temperature would lead to 0.9% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P=0.010), and when the temperature was over 26.1?, 1? rise of average daily temperature would lead to 4.1% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P<0.001). For children was o ver 5 years old, 1? rise of daily average temperature would lead to 2.9% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P=0.001), when the temperature was below 14.1?, 1? rise of average daily temperature would lead to 5.4% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P<0.001). For male children, 1? rise of average daily temperature would lead to 1.1% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P=0.008), when the temperature was over 25.9?, 1? rise of daily average temperature would lead to 4.0% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P=0.001). For female children, 1? rise of average daily temperature would lead to 1.5% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P=0.002), when the temperature was o ver 16?, 1? rise of daily average temperature would lead to 2.4% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P<0.001). For nursery children, 1? rise of average daily temperature would lead to 1.6% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P=0.010), when the temperature was below 17.9?, 1? rise of average daily temperature would lead to 3.5% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P<0.001). For school-age children, 1? rise of average daily temperature would lead to 4.2% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P<0.001), when the temperature was below 12.9?, 1? rise of average daily temperature would lead to 8.4% reduction of the risk of Influenza-like disease(P<0.001).4.The effect of daily average pressure on the risk of Influenza-like disease1h Pa rise of daily average pressure would lead to 0.5% increase the risk of influenza-like disease for children under 15 years old(P=0.007). When the pressure was below 1004.4 h Pa, 1h Pa rise of average pressure would lead to 2.1% increase the risk of influenza-like disease(P=0.001). For the children between 1 to 5 years old, 1h Pa rise of average pressure would lead to 0.5% increase the risk of influenza-like disease(P=0.033), when the pressure was below 1003.4 h Pa, 1h Pa rise of average pressure would lead to 2.3% increase the risk of influenza-like disease(P=0.019). For the females children, 1h Pa rise of average pressure would lead to 0.8% increase the risk of influenza-like disease(P=0.005), when the pressure was below 1003.4 h Pa, 1h Pa rise of average pressure would lead to 2.2% increase the risk of influenza-like disease(P=0.047), when the pressure was over 1003.4 h Pa, 1h Pa rise of average pressure would lead to 0.6% increase the risk of influenza-like disease(P=0.034). For school-age children, 1h Pa rise of average pressure would lead to 1.9% increase the risk of influenza-like disease(P=0.002), when the pressure was below 1004.4 h Pa, 1h Pa rise of average pressure would lead to 6.4% increase the risk of influenza-like disease(P=0.003), when the pressure was over 1004.4 h Pa, 1h Pa rise of average pressure would lead to 1.3% increase the risk of influenza-like disease(P=0.046).5.The effect of daily average rainfall on the risk of Influenza-like diseaseWhen the daily average rainfall was less than 4.2mm, 1mm rise of daily average rainfall would lead to 1.4% reduction of the risk of influenza-like disease(P = 0.047).Conclusion: The number of influenzas-like disease everyday in children under 15 years old was greatly affected by air temperature, pressure and rainfall in Jingzhou. The risk of influenza-like disease would drop greatly with higher temperature(>26.1?), lower pressure(<1004.4h Pa) and less rainfall(<4.2mm). |
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