Epidemiological Characteristics And Temporal And Spatial Aggregation Of Mumps In Jilin Province From 2015 To 2018

Objective:Analyzing the Epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018,and the temporal and spatial clustering of mumps,which provides a basis for the development of targeted prevention and control strategies,to improve the level of public health monitoring and more reasonable and effective allocation of health resources.Methods:1.Using ArcGIS 10.3 software to draw the distribution map of counties(districts)with mumps incidence in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018;using Excel 2016 software to draw the time distribution map of mumps incidence in Jilin province from 2015 to 2018,to describe the epidemiological characteristics of mumps.2.Spatial autocorrelation analysis was carried out using ArcGIS 10.3 software to explore the spatial aggregation of mumps in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018,including global spatial autocorrelation analysis and local spatial autocorrelation analysis.Global spatial autocorrelation was analyzed using Global Moran's I index;local spatial autocorrelation was analyzed using Getis-Ord Gi* and Local Moran's I index.3.Use SaTScan 9.6 software for retrospective spatiotemporal scanning analysis,and select Poisson model to analyze the incidence data of mumps in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018 by space-time scanning with the county(district)as the space unit and the month as the time unit,including purely time scanning,purely spatial scanning and space-time scanning.The whole period scanning results and the annual scanning results of 2015-2018 were separately analyzed and presented.Results:1.In 2015-2018,there were 5,819 cases of mumps in Jilin Province,and the annual incidence and incidence rate were 1455 and 5.31/100,000.The onset time was concentrated in April-July and November-December,and the two areas with the highest annual incidence were Yanbian Prefecture and Jilin City.The incidence of males was higher than that of females,and the age of patients was concentrated at 0-14 years.The students,young children and scattered children were the main affected population.2.The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran's I index of mumps in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018 was 0.1766,0.2634,0.2075,0.1905,respectively,and the results were statistically significant(P<0.05).3.The results of Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis showed that there were 8 hotspots and 7 cold spots in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018.The hotspots were mostly located in the east parts of Jilin Province,and the cold spots were mostly located in the northwest parts of Jilin Province.Local Moran's I analysis showed that there were 8 counties(districts)in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018 with high-value clusters(HH),1 county(districts)was high-value surrounded by low-values(HL),and two counties(districts)were low-value clusters(LL).The high-value aggregation(HH)mostly appeared in the east part of Jilin Province.4.In the purely time scanning results,the cumulative time scan showed that the May-June in 2015 was the high-incidence time of mumps,and 2015 was the highincidence year of mumps.The results of the annual time scan showed that the incidence of mumps in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018 was concentrated in April-June and November-December.5.In the purely spatial scanning results,the spatial distribution of mumps in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018 was not randomly distributed,but there was spatial accumulation.The first-level gathering areas were concentrated in the eastern part of Jilin Province,covering five counties(districts)in Tumen City,Yanji City,Wangqing County,Longjing City and Hunchun City in Yanbian Prefecture.The remaining space gathering areas were distributed in the west and central parts of Jilin Province.6.The space-time scanning of mumps in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018 were carried out in month-based units.The results showed that the first-level gathering areas appeared in the eastern part of Jilin Province,and belonged to the area under the jurisdiction of Yanbian Prefecture.The second-level gathering areas,except for 2015,covered three counties(districts)of Chuanying District,Fengman District and Changyi District in Jilin City.The remaining cluster areas were distributed in the west and central parts of Jilin Province.Conclusion:1.In 2015-2018,the incidence of mumps in Jilin Province showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing.The lowest incidence of mumps was in 2016.The incidence of males was higher than that of females.The age of patients was concentrated at 0-14 years.Students,young children and scattered children were the main affected population.2.The incidence of mumps in Jilin Province during 2015-2018 was obviously seasonal,which was concentrated in April-June and November-December.3.The incidence of mumps in Jilin Province from 2015 to 2018 was spatially clustered.The high incidence areas were located in parts of the east and central parts of Jilin Province.Among the counties(districts)under the jurisdiction of Yanbian Prefecture,there were more high incidence areas,which are the key areas for prevention and treatment of mumps in Jilin Province.