Time Series Analysis On Association Between Air Pollution And Outpatient Visits For Respiratory Diseases Of Pediatrics In A Hospital In Hefei

Objective:To investigate the relationship between air pollution and the outpatient amount of pediatric respiratory system diseases in Hefei city.Method:To collect the number of outpatients, the air quality index (AQI) and related meteorological index in the outpatient department of pediatric respiratory system diseases in a third-grade class-A hospital of Hefei city from 2012 to 2014. Poisson generalized additive model was used to analyze the relationship between AQI value and the amount of outpatient respiratory system diseases and the lag effect.To collect the number of outpatients, PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, O3 data and related meteorological index in a third-grade class-A hospital in Hefei province. Poisson generalized additive model was established by R3.1.3 software mgcv, and the relationship between PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, O3 data were analyzed.Results:In 2012?2014, the AQI value of Hefei city was 100.64±53.76. Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that respiratory tract infection, acute and chronic bronchitis, pneumonia and asthma outpatients were positively related to many kinds of meteorological factors and AQI values (P<0.05). Through the model analysis, the factors such as the meteorological index, the effect of the week, the holiday effect, and the AQI value increased by 10 per unit, which is expected to increase by 0.14% (95%CI:O.11% to 0.18%),0.24%(95%CI:0.17%to 0.23%) and 0.17%(95%CI:0.10% to 0.22%).Data of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, CO were 79.96 47.53(?g/m3),111.06 58.69 (?g/m3),19.15 8.31 (?g/m3),27.07 9.36 (?g/m3),1.02 0.38 (mg/m3) and 55.57 21.17 (?g/m3), respectively in Hefei in 2014. The results showed that NO2 and SO2 had a positive correlation with four kinds of diseases and had no lag time, but the RR value was higher in pneumonia and asthma. 1d (Lagl) effect was the most obvious in the upper respiratory tract infection, and the effect of acute and chronic and asthmatic bronchitis was gradually decreased. PM2.5 and Id (Lag1) effect of 3d (Lag3) were the most obviousin in the upper respiratory tract infection,and the effect of 2d (lag2) was the most obvious in acute and chronic asthmatic bronchitis. The effect of PM10 (Lagl) on Id and 3d (Lag3) was the most obvious in the upper respiratory tract infection,and the effect of 1d (lag1) was the most obvious in acute and chronic asthmatic bronchitis,and the effect of 2d (lag2) was the most obvious in asthma.The effect of CO (Lagl) on 1d and 3d (Lag3) was the most obvious, and the effect of 2d (lag2) was the most obvious in acute and chronic asthmatic bronchitis and asthma. O3 and respiratory tract infection and acute and chronic bronchitis, the outpatient amount has obvious lag effect,5d (lag5) effect is the most obvious.Conclusion:The increase of air pollution may result in an increase in the outpatient service of respiratory system diseases in children, and should be further strengthened to monitor and reduce pollutant emissions to protect children's health.