Research The Time Series Analysis The Effect Of PM_2.5 Pollution On Respiration And Circulation System In Winter In Beijing

Objective: Atmospheric total suspended particles（TSP）pollution has become the primary pollutant in many cities,a serious impact on the health of the residents in the life,which mainly to fine particulate matter(PM_2.5 is harmful to the health of larger,and widespread concern.In present the main research direction of the air fine particulate matter at home and abroad is focus on the basis of pollution source,chemical composition,pollution characteristics,pathophysiology,and toxicology and other health effects and mechanism.But most studies only stay at the level of the entire system,and the research of PM_2.5 pollution on the impact of the detailed classification of diseases is relatively small.The emphasis of this study focuses on the past two years describes the characteristics and variation of air pollution in Beijing,and to assess the effect of winter air PM_2.5 pollution in Beijing on the respiratory,circulatory system-related diseases affect,and the analysis of air pollutants and lagged effects,in order to further explore the PM_2.5 pathogenesis related diseases.Methods: Collection of daily air pollutant data and meteorological data from January 2016 to January 2014 in Beijing.Air pollution data mainly includes fine particulate matter(PM_2.5),inhalable particulate matter(PM₁₀),sulfur dioxide（SO₂）,carbon monoxide（CO）,nitrogen dioxide（NO₂）and ozone（O₃）such six kinds of air pollutants daily average concentration and average daily air quality index（AQI）.The meteorological data including daily average temperature and relative humidity.Also collected October 2015 20 to 2016 01 February period to the Beijing Armed Police General Hospital,Department of respiratory medicine,cardiology,emergency department outpatients daily outpatient visits and the number of patients who visit information,and the upper respiratory tract infection（URTI）,trachea and bronchitis,chronic obstruction of lung disease（COPD）and bronchial asthma,pulmonary infection and acute cardiovascular events（ACVD）and other types of diseases were statistical classified and analyzed.Descriptive analysis and correlation analysis between pollutants using SPSS19.0 software.Application of R software,using generalized additive Poisson regression（GAM）model to model the time series data,respectively health effects on the model of single pollution and multi pollution model,lag effect and sensitivity analysis.Results:1 In 2014,2015 annual AQI average respectively 120,123,respectively,a total of 108 days（29.59%）,109 days（29.86%）as moderate and more polluted weather,annual average concentration of PM_2.5 were 84.5 μg/m3 and 80.6μg/m3,respectively,158 days（43.4%）and 152 days（41.6%）average daily mean concentration exceeded the national standard 24h（75 μg/m3）.2 The Spearman correlation analysis results showed that PM_2.5 is the most relevant pollutants with air quality and health effects,and showed a significant positive correlation with respiratory medical patients with an average age of treatment,the correlation coefficient with bronchial asthma is 0.646,the correlation coefficient with COPD is 0.515,and the correlation coefficients with bronchitis and pneumonia were 0.510 and 0.316.3 In the analysis of single pollutant generalized additive models,daily average concentration of PM_2.5 on respiratory,cardiovascular internal medicine outpatient amount and various related diseases has a significant impact and were at lag 1 day maximum effect,which is increased by 10 μg/m3,respiratory medicine and cardiovascular internal medicine outpatient amount would be expected increase of about 0.40%（95%CI:0.38%,0.43%）and 0.47%（95%CI:0.45%,0.49%）.Among them,the bronchial asthma patients would be expected to increase 1.44%（95%CI:1.36%,1.52%）and acute cardiovascular events would be expected to increase 1.41%（95%CI:1.36%,1.46%）and in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is expected to increase the 1.21%（95%CI:1.13%,1.28%）,in patients with pulmonary infection increased 1.1%（95%CI:1.01%,1.19%）,bronchitis patients are expected to increase 1.09%（95%CI:1.05%,1.14%）,while the PM_2.5 pollution is infected patients with no significant effect on the upper respiratory tract.4 In the analysis of single pollution generalized additive models for other pollutants showed that when the lag of 1 day,NO₂ increases every 6μg/m3,will result in respiratory medicine clinics and cardiology clinic were expected growth of about 0.83%（95%CI:0.77%,0.89%）and 1.15%（95%CI:1.11%,1.19%）.PM₁₀ increased every 10μg/m3,will lead to outpatient respiratory medicine,cardiology outpatient expected growth of 0.27%（95%CI:0.25%,0.29%）and 0.22%（95%CI:0.20%,0.24%）.CO increases every 0.2 mg/m3,will respectively leads to the outpatient department of respiratory,cardiovascular internal medicine outpatient amount is expected to increase 0.46%（95%CI:0.43%,0.49%）and 0.51%（95%CI:0.48%,0.54%）.SO₂ increases every 1.5 μg/m3,will lead to cardiovascular internal medicine outpatient amount is expected to increase of 0.44%（95%CI:0.41%,0.47%）,but no significant effect on the respiratory medicine outpatient.5 In multi generalized additive model when introduced pollution PM_2.5,PM₁₀,NO₂,SO₂ and CO in the display,the pollutants increased the excess risk of respiratory medicine as well as cardiology clinic,but statistically significant has declined,only PM_2.5 and NO₂ concentrations rise high on the cardiology clinic have certain statistical significance.And other pollutants were no statistical significance.Conclusions:1 The air PM_2.5 concentration of Beijing in winter at lag 1 day health effects of the greatest impact,which increased by 10 μg/m3,will lead to diseases of respiratory system and cardiovascular system to increase 0.40% and 0.47%,of which the pathogenesis of bronchial asthma will increase 1.44%,acute cardiovascular events will increase 1.41%,chronic obstructive pulmonary.2 In the lag of 1 days,NO₂ per 6μg/m3 increase,will lead to respiratory diseases,cardiovascular disease incidence were expected to increase by 0.83% and 1.15%.PM₁₀ each increase of 10 μg/m3,will lead to respiratory diseases,cardiovascular disease incidence increased by 0.27% and 0.22% respectively.CO each increase in 0.2 mg/m3,will lead to respiratory system diseases,cardiovascular system diseases increased by 0.46% and 0.51% respectively.SO₂ 1.5 μg/m3 per elevation,will lead to increased cardiovascular disease incidence is expected to increase by 0.44%.