| Objectives: 1.To understand the air quality in Lanzhou through the analysis of the daily average concentration of air pollutants in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2015.2.To understand the leading causes of death in Lanzhou through the analysis of the condition of residents' death from 2014 to 2015.3.To analyze quantitatively the associations between the daily concentration of air pollutants and the non-accident total mortality,respiratory mortality,cardiovascular mortality of residents in Lanzhou.Methods: 1.The main air pollutants,meteorological data and daily mortality were collected from Jan1 st,2014 to Dec31 th,2015 in Lanzhou city;2.The correlative relationship between air pollutants and meteorological factors were analyzed by Spearman correlation coefficient;3.R 3.2.3 software GAM module was adopted to establish the generalized additive model with Poisson distribution(single pollutants and multiple pollutants model),and nonparametric smoothing function was used to control the long-term trend,day of week and meteorological conditions(temperature,pressure,humidity),and other confounding factors,then the acute influence of major air pollutants(SO2,NO2,PM10 and PM2.5)on residents' non-accidental death,respiratory system disease death and circulatory system disease were studied,and the excess risk of ER were calculated.Results:1.The daily average concentration of SO2,NO2,CO,O3,PM10 and PM2.5 respectively were 22.73 ?g/m3,44.43 ?g/m3,1.35 mg/m3,42.87 ?g/m3,115.80 ?g/m3,53.18 ?g/m3 from 2014 to 2015 in Lanzhou.2.From 2014 to 2015 in Lanzhou the daily average concentration of SO2 and O3 were both conformed to National secondary standard;The days in which the daily average concentration of NO2,CO,PM10 and PM2.5 were not accord with National secondary standard were 21 days,4 days,132 days,132 days,respectively,and accounting for 2.88 %,0.55 %,18.08 % and 2.88 % of the total number of days;respectively.The mean of SO2,NO2,CO,PM10,PM2.5 and AQI index in heating period were higher than that in non-heating period,O3 was lower than that in non-heating period.3.The days in which the air quality were good and excellent in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2015 were 530 days,accounting for 72.6 % of the total number of days;while the total pollution days were 200 days and accounting for 27.4 %.4.There was an obvious correlation between meteorologic factor and air pollutants.The correlation about average daily temperature with SO2,NO2,CO,PM10 and PM2.5 were negative correlation,but was positively correlated with O3.The correlation between relative humidity with SO2,NO2,O3,PM10 were negative correlation,and carbon monoxide was positive correlation,and PM2.5 were irrelevant;The correlation about daily average pressure with SO2,NO2,CO,PM2.5 were positive correlation,and negatively correlated to O3,and PM10 irrelevant;There was an obvious correlation between the atmospheric pollutants;The correlation about SO2 with NO2,PM10 and PM2.5 were positive,and the correlation coefficients were 0.537,0.533,0.600,and negatively related to O3 with correlation coefficient-0.487.The correlation about NO2 with PM10,PM2.5,CO were positive correlation and the correlation coefficients were 0.507,0.501,0.132 respectively,and negatively related to O3 with correlation coefficient-0.372;The correlation between PM10 and PM2.5 were positive respectively,and the correlation coefficient was 0.741.5.Single pollutant model results showed that the best lag days of SO2,NO2,PM10 and PM2.5 on the non-accident total mortality were lag0,lag1,lag1,lag1,respectively.The best lag days on the impact of the respiratory system disease death were lag1,lag1,lag3,lag3,respectively;The best lag days on the affection of the circulatory system disease death respectively were lag4,lag3,lag1,lag2.An increase of 10 ?g/m3 in concentrations of SO2 in Lanzhou,the death excess risk of residents' accident total death,circulatory mortality and respiratory mortality respectively corresponded to 0.95%(95%CI:0.45%~1.45%),1.34%(95%CI:0.60%~2.08%),0.68%(95%CI:0.29% ~1.07%).An increase of 10 ?g/m3 in concentrations of NO2,the death excess risk of residents' accident total death,circulatory mortality and respiratory mortality respectively corresponded to 0.47%(95%CI:0.23%~0.71%),1.28%(95%CI:0.47%~2.09%),0.26%(95%CI:0.03%~0.49%).An increase of 10 ?g/m3 in concentrations of PM10,the death excess risk of residents' accident total death,circulatory mortality and respiratory mortality respectively correspond to 0.64%(95%CI:0.07%~1.21%),0.72%(95%CI:0.22% ~1.22%),0.86%(95%CI:0.27%~1.01%).An increase of 10 ?g/m3 in concentrations of PM2.5,the death excess risk of residents' accident total death,circulatory mortality and respiratory mortality respectively corresponded to 0.83%(95%CI:0.32%~1.31%),0.96%(95% CI:0.45%~1.47%),0.64%(95%CI:0.34%~1.38%).6.According to the best lag days,the multiple pollutants GAM model of various atmospheric pollutants and the non-accident total death,respiratory system disease death and circulatory system disease death in Lanzhou were builded while controlling long-term trend,meteorological factors and day of week.When NO2,PM10 and PM2.5 and(NO2,PM10 and PM2.5)were adjusted,the impact of SO2 on non-accidental mortality still had statistical significance(P<0.05);When SO2,PM10 and PM2.5 and(SO2,PM10 and PM2.5)were adjusted,the influence of NO2 on respiratory mortality still have statistical significance(P<0.05);When SO2,NO2 and(SO2,NO2 and PM10)were adjusted,the impact of PM2.5 on circulatory mortality still have statistical significance(P<0.05).Conclusions: 1.PM10 and PM2.5 were the main air pollutant affecting the air quality in Lanzhou city.There were correlation between atmospheric pollutants and meteorological factors in Lanzhou city.2.The main cause of death of Lanzhou residents was circulatory system diseases;The atmospheric pollutants SO2,NO2,PM10 and PM2.5 had certain influence on the non-accident total mortality,circulatory mortality,respiratory disease mortality in Lanzhou city,and there were also lag effect.3.SO2 may be the independent health risk factors of non-accident total mortality in Lanzhou city;NO2 may be the independent health risk factors to respiratory mortality;PM2.5 may be the independent health risk factors of circulatory mortality. |
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