The Research On Systme Dynamics Model For Safety And Sustained Development Of Air Traffic Control Unit

The rapid growth of flight volume has posed a huge challenge to the safe and sustainable development of air traffic control units.The contradiction between the guarantee capability of air traffic control units and the demand for development is the root of hindering its safe and sustainable development.The study of the internal mechanism of the interaction between the guarantee capability of air traffic control units and their safety and development helps to solve the problem of safe and sustainable development of air traffic control units.Based on the systematic thinking of growth and under-investment base model,using the system dynamics method to establish a causal relationship diagram of sustainable development for ATC units.By determining the initial value and the equation of the model,the system dynamic model for safety and sustainable development of the ATC unit was established.Through the way of expert interviews and literature review,we set the single-policy scenario and the continuous security development policy scenario.Through the single policy scenario,the main regulatory variables that affect the safe and sustainable development of ATC units are determined.Then,the policy of sustainable development is defined through the orthogonal combination of these regulatory variables.The results show that,the guarantee capability of air traffic control units be increased in 2016-2020,while strictly controlling the number of inbound and outbound flights;and relaxing of flow control from 2021 to 2036,meanwhile,maintaining the same level of security can ensure the safe and sustained development of air traffic control units.