Research On The Cost Estimation Of Prefabricated Building Based On Grey System Theory

As a new form of architecture,prefabricated construction is friendly to the environment and resource,which appeals to the economic development and meets demand of the architecture development in a healthy,sustainable way---the process of constructing can reduce the effluent discharge,hazardous gas emission,dust emission as well as the construction noise,which efficiently promote construction productivity and level of finely detailed design.However,compare to the traditional architecture,the matter of cost estimation is obvious and common.Based on the practical investment case,overseas' advanced experience and theory of “gray system”,the paper is trying to find the proper way of cost estimation and optimize its precision.Two parts are including in the thesis.The introduction about the research background,purpose,meaning as well as the study achievement of cost estimation from the home and abroad are presented in the first part.Based on these analysis,brief clarification of main contents,methods,the way of thinking as well as innovation are followed.What's more,threats and opportunities are also analyzed in this part based on the development history and classification of the prefabricated construction.The second part gives the wholly process of analysis.Based on the cost estimate basic principles of assembly building and the theory of lifetime cycle,the paper gives seven kind of costs,such as,investment cost,construction cost,operation and maintenance cost,scrap cost,salvage value and social cost.Bring the “gray system”theory into consideration,two model are formed--GM(1,1)model and waveform prediction model.Through real datum from practical case and after many arguments,the waveform prediction model was proved to be more sophisticated.Given the principles and the main views put forward in the thesis,many drawbacks may exist.Based on this,the direction of research in the future summarize in the last in order to provide the reference both in theory and practice aspects.