Study On Spatio-temporal Evolution And Influencing Factors Of Clean Coal Power Generation Technology Diffusion

The contradiction between power structure dominated by coal-fired power generation mainly and pollution emission will not change in the future for a long time.The clean coal power generation technology has the characteristics of high efficiency and low emission,and its diffusion application is an important way to realize the clean transformation of coal-fired power.It has great theoretical and practical significance for scientifically planning the installation of clean coal power generation technology in various regions,by studying the temporal and spatial evolution law and diffusion potential in various regions of clean coal power generation technology,and analyzing the influencing factors of the diffusion of clean coal power generation technology.Based on the total installed capacity data of subcritical,supercritical and ultra-supercritical units in China in the period of 1975 to 2015,Bass diffusion model was used to analyze the temporal diffusion characteristics of supercritical and ultra-supercritical clean coal power generation technology(supercritical and ultra-supercritical technology)and the traditional coal power generation technology(subcritical technology).Based on the total installed capacity data in the period of 2006 to 2015,the spatial autocorrelation analysis method was used to reveal the spatial agglomeration characteristics of provincial diffusion of three power generation technologies.Furthermore,based on the panel data model,the factors affecting the diffusion of SC_USC clean coal power generation technology are examined.Finally,according to the research results,some suggestions were put forward for the diffusion of clean coal power generation technology in various regions.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)Analysis of the temporal diffusion characteristics showed that the diffusion of subcritical technology in each region has entered a mature stage tt present,the market tended to saturation.In the period of “11th Five-Year” and “12th Five-Year”,the supercritical technology diffused rapidly,the diffusion in the eastern region has just reached saturation,and supercritical technology diffusion will be mainly concentrated in the western region in the future.The ultra-supercritical technology began to diffuse rapidly in the eastern region,and the diffusion of ultra-supercritical technology has entered the late growth stage with growth trend of slowing down,the diffusion in the Central and western regions was at the early growth stage with the greater potential diffusion.(2)Spatial diffusion analysis indicated that the high diffusion area of subcritical technology was mainly located in North China and East China,the low diffusion area of subcritical technology was mainly concentrated in the western region and Central China,and subcritical technology has stable agglomeration characteristics.There was a spatial agglomeration which showed a tendency to increase first and then weaken in the diffusion of supercritical technology.The high diffusion agglomeration area was mainly located in eastern and central regions,the low diffusion agglomeration area was mainly distributed in the western region.There was a significant spatial agglomeration characteristic in the diffusion of ultra-supercritical technology.The high diffusion agglomeration area was mainly located in East China,and the low diffusion accumulation area was mainly distributed in the western and Northern regions.(3)The panel measurement results manifested that power consumption demand was the dominant factor in the diffusion of SC_USC clean coal power generation technology;Energy conservation and emission reduction policy had a promoting role on the diffusion of SC_USC technology in the whole country and the central and western regions,and the impact on the eastern region is not significant.The R&D’s fund input intensity had a negative effect in the whole country and western regions whereas exerted a positive effect in the eastern region,the effect in the central region was not significant.The resource factors had a significant positive impact on the SC_USC technology diffusion in the whole country and eastern region,and the effect in the central and western regions were not significant.At the present stage,the influence of renewable energy on the diffusion of SC_USC clean coal power generation technology was not significant.